How Low Could Bitcoin Go on Negative Coverage?




BTCUSD is heading towards key support levels on North Korean and Chinese Volatility. How low can Bitcoin go? Could BTCUSD survive the blows? Here is an overview weighing the good, and the bad, in the cryptocurrency world.

The bad.

1- Crypto-currencies have become a tool for money laundering and criminal activities. As the most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has helped fuel the rise of ransomware attacks—extortion schemes, like the recent WannaCry cyberattack, in which hackers hold the contents of a victim’s computer hostage until they get paid. Criminals can use Bitcoin to collect ransoms easily and without having to reveal their identities. The currency has also been associated with online drug sales, money laundering, and sex trafficking.

2- North Korean regime appears to be stepping up efforts to secure Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that could be used to avoid additional trade restrictions. North Korean hackers are increasing their attacks on crypto-currency exchanges in South Korea and related sites. They also breached an English-language bitcoin news website and collected Bitcoin ransom payments from global victims of the malware WannaCry.

3- In the meantime, China plans to ban trading of Bitcoin and other virtual currencies on domestic exchanges, dealing another blow to the $150 billion cryptocurrency market after the country outlawed initial coin offerings last week. The ban will only apply to trading of cryptocurrencies on exchanges, according to Bloomberg. Authorities don’t have plans to stop over-the-counter transactions, the people said. China’s central bank said it couldn’t immediately comment.

4- JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon hit the wires on Tuesday with comments that were not Bitcoin-friendly. Dimon said that he ‘would fire any trader trading Bitcoin for being stupid,’ and that the move into Bitcoin ‘won’t end well.’

 

The good.

1- On the other hand, in the other side of the world, researchers at Finland’s central bank have praised Bitcoin’s economic system as “revolutionary”. However, this praise has not been enough to divert Bitcoin prices in the past weeks. Despite all the drama, the growing crypto-currency market is evident that Bitcoin is here to stay.

2- Nasdaq survey sees ‘Long Bitcoin’ as the world’s most crowded trade, which means the majority of traders disagree with JPMorgan. Only time would tell.

Technical Points

BTC/USD is approaching the 4,065 support level and the 23% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily time frame. From a technical point of view, this retracement is NBD as the pair has previously seen pullbacks within the general uptrend. Previously the pullbacks have bottomed out at 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This is something that could very well happen again.

The pair remains above the daily Ichimoku cloud, with the Tenkan line turning down towards the Kijun line.

With that, and as the fundamental volatility continues in the cryptocurrency world, we could see further drops in the pair towards 3,636.

BTC/JPY chart shows that the Kijun line has officially crossed below the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo moving averages. This marks the first Ichimoku-based bearish signal, indicating we could see further drops towards the 38% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels at 420,000 and 390,000 respectively.

This drop is despite the JPY weakness across the board, indicating that Bitcoin is losing to JPY at this point in terms of strength.

 

Disclaimer (1): You must calculate your risk tolerance before deciding on which trading strategy is suitable for your portfolio. We normally do not recommend trading without three or more confirmation of a specific direction from technical, fundamental and market sentiment points of view.

Disclaimer(2): Forex is one of the HIGHEST risk investing instruments there is. If you don’t have sufficient risk tolerance to trade forex, you can try investing other online securities.

 

Here are our calculations for important approximate BTC/USD levels to keep an eye on:

 

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
3,310 3,636  4,715
3,636 4,065 5,200

 

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