Bitcoin Price Watch; 1300 Just Around The Corner!

Another day done in our bitcoin price trading efforts is drawing to a close, and it’s been one that has been pretty good to us. We noted in our coverage this morning that the bitcoin price seemed to be settling down a bit, and that we we’re expecting some degree of sideways trading today, as price ranged into a consolidation period.

We set up a range that was capable of taking advantage of breakouts to both the up and the downside, and set up some relatively aggressive targets coupled with some tight risk management parameters. As it turns out, the strategy has served us well.

We saw the bitcoin price break through the upper level in our range mid afternoon, and price hasn’t really looked back since. We got in on the break, and managed to carry through to our predefined take profit without any suggestion of a reversal or a chop.

So, what does this mean for tonight?

Well, it brings 1300 into play as a potential near term target (we’re actually going to look beyond that level, as we’ll get to shortly), meaning we could be in for some fresh highs in the bitcoin price near term. Fresh highs make things interesting, as they usually generate a wave of extra attention (outside the space) that adds extra speculative capital to the equation, meaning we could see a real run soon.

So, let’s get to our key levels for this evening. Take a look at the chart below before we get started.

As the chart shows, the range we’ve got for tonight is defined by support to the downside at 1281, and resistance to the upside at 1290. If we see a close above 1290, we’ll be in towards 1305. Conversely, a close below support will put us in towards 1270.

Let’s see what happens.

Charts courtesy of SimpleFX

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One of the core concepts behind our approach to the recent volatility in the bitcoin price markets across the last week or so has been caution. The gains seen (primarily early to mid last week, but also over the weekend to some degree) have come around on the back of speculative volume, and as always, speculative volume must – at some point – fold into profit taking. The tough thing is knowing when a correction is just a correction, and when it’s the beginning of a wider market turnaround.

Action overnight looks to have offered up some signs of just this type of turnaround, and much of the gains picked up across last week’s session are now back on the table. SO, with this said, and as we head into a fresh day’s trading in the bitcoin price on Tuesday morning out of Europe, what are we looking to trade, and where are we looking to get in and out of the markets if we see any intraday volatility? As ever, take a quick look at the chart to get an idea of what’s on. It’s a fifteen-minute candlestick chart that illustrates the latest decline/turnaround, and has today’s range overlaid on action.

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As the chart shows, the range we are focusing on this morning is defined by in term support to the downside at 678, and resistance to the upside at 714. These are the most recent swing low and high respectively, so they should hold up fine near term.

If price logs a close below in term support, we will look to enter short towards an initial downside target of 670 flat. A stop loss on the trade somewhere in the region of 882 defines risk.

Looking long, if we see a close above resistance we will get in long towards an immediate upside target of 725. Stop at 709.

Charts courtesy of Trading View

Trying to figure out which way the bitcoin price is heading has been a tough task as late. There’s been no real overarching directional bias – the bitcoin price has ranged consistently with the exception of a few sharp breakouts. As such, we’ve been implementing our intraday breakout strategy in combination with predefined risk levels in order to try and draw a profit from the spikes. This has fared pretty well over the weekend, and as we head into a fresh day’s trading, we will carry the same strategy forward today. So, with this said, what are the levels we are looking to trade this European session, and where we will look to get out of the markets in the event that our strategy puts us in to a long or short position? Take a quick look at the chart below.

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As the chart shows, action overnight continued the trend we have seen so far this week, with relatively flat consolidatory action confined within a pretty tight range. As we head into today’s session, the levels we are watching are in term support to the downside at 328.02 and in term resistance at 341.99. Since we have a relatively wide range to play with, the opportunity fur intrarange strategy is open. If we reach resistance, it will give us an opportunity to go short (assuming we don’t break to the upside) towards in term support as a downside target. On this trade, a stop loss just the other side of resistance – around 346 flat – gives us plenty of wriggle room for our risk management.

If we do break this level to the upside, it would validate an upside entry (on a close above it) and an initial upside target of 356.10. Again a stop loss is needed, and somewhere around 338 would work nicely.

Charts courtesy of Trading View.

We have seen quite a lot of bullish action in the bitcoin price throughout the end of the weekend and during Monday’s session, and – in our twice-daily bitcoin price watch piece that we published yesterday evening – we suggested that if a fundamentally driven market sentiment (based on what is happening in Greece) can continue to keep hold of asset prices, there could be further bullish momentum to come. As it happens, having reached highs yesterday just shy of 280 flat, with seen something of a medium-term correction in the bitcoin price, and lost about $10 throughout the Asian session. The question now is, is this just a short-term self as a response to the bullish action and a certain level of profit-taking (similar to what we might see in the Forex markets), or has the uptrend into an end and we set for further downside momentum during today’s session? Reality, we don’t really know, but we can line up our key levels against both sides of the bitcoin price, and use our intraday breakout strategy to draw profit regardless of direction.

So, with this said, take a quick look at the chart below.

bitcoin price

As you can see, having decline from highs at 278.54 yesterday evening, the bitcoin price now trading between what serves as in term support at 264.94 (intraday lows) and in term resistance at 267.99. These are the two levels that we will be watching during today’s session. If we get a break above 267.99, it could spark a return to the upside momentum we have seen throughout the first half of this week, and would validate 271.67 as an initial upside target going forward. Conversely, a break below 264.94 would bring 260 into play to the downside medium-term, with a stop loss somewhere around 266 flat maintaining a positive risk reward profile on the trade.

Charts courtesy of Trading View