Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis – Can BTC/USD Capitalize Further?

Key Points

  • Bitcoin price formed a major bottom at the $9096 low and recovered well against the US Dollar.
  • The BTC/USD pair is currently attempting to settle above two bearish trend lines with resistance at $12,250 on the 4-hours chart (data feed from SimpleFX).
  • The price must settle above the $12800 level to gain upside momentum in the near term.

Bitcoin price is gaining momentum above $11,500 against the US Dollar. BTC/USD is trading with a positive bias and it looks set to break the $12,800 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Resistance

After a major decline, bitcoin price was able to find buyers below the $10,000 level against the US Dollar. A low was formed at $9096 from where an upside recovery was initiated. The price moved higher and was able to trade above the $10,000 resistance. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $14,219 high to $9096 low.

There are many positive signs on the chart above $11,000. More importantly, the price is above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $14,219 high to $9096 low. At the moment, the BTC/USD pair is currently attempting to settle above two bearish trend lines with resistance at $12,250 on the 4-hours chart. It is positive sign above $12,000. However, the pair has to settle above the $12,800 level to gain upside momentum. Moreover, the price should clear the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $14,219 high to $9096 low at $13,010.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis BTC USD

Overall, it looks like the pair is around a crucial juncture below $13,000. Should bitcoin succeeds in moving above $13,000, there could be more gains in the near term above $15,000.

Looking at the technical indicators:              

4-hours MACD – The MACD is now slowly moving in the bullish zone.

4-hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is just above the 50 level and is moving down slowly.

Major Support Level – $11,000

Major Resistance Level – $13,000

 

Charts courtesy – SimpleFX

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Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price looks ready to resume its slide as the descending trend line on the 1-hour time frame is keeping gains in check.
  • This lines up with Fibonacci retracement levels that add to its strength as a ceiling.
  • A continuation of the selloff could lead to a test or break of the lows near $9,300.

Bitcoin price is struggling to regain ground as it hit a barrier at the inflection points on short-term charts.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to continue than to reverse.

The gap between the moving averages is widening to signal a pickup in bearish momentum. The 100 SMA also lines up with the trend line and Fib levels, keeping gains in check. A larger pullback could still hit a ceiling at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point around $13,000.

Stochastic is pointing down to signal that sellers are on top of their game. RSI has more room to fall, possibly allowing bitcoin price to drop to the swing low or even break lower.

Market Factors

Bitcoin price appears to be unable to shrug off the negative vibes from the crackdown in China and South Korea, with the latest sharp selloff further spooking investors into liquidating.

It might need a strong catalyst to spur a break past the trend line and upside inflection points before bulls jump back in. For now, there seem to be no foreseeable catalysts, unless a test of another major inflection point prompts more buyers to get in a cheaper levels.

It’s worth noting that a couple of geopolitical risks are in play in the financial markets and this could prove positive for cryptocurrencies. First is the looming threat of a US government shutdown and next is the inability for Merkel to strike a coalition in Germany.

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price appears ready to resume its climb as it found support on long-term inflection points.
  • Bitcoin price also formed a spinning top at the test of the ascending trend line on the daily time frame.
  • A move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level could draw more buyers to the mix.

Bitcoin price found support and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on a major inflection point, so the next daily candle close might be crucial.

Technical Indicators Signals

Despite the recent sharp selloff, the 100 SMA is safely above the longer-term 200 SMA on the daily time frame. This confirms that the path of least resistance is to the upside and that the climb could be ready to resume.

In addition, the gap between the moving averages is still widening to reflect strengthening bullish momentum. The 100 SMA has held as dynamic support as well.

The next daily candle could close above the previous spinning top’s high and possibly confirm that the correction is over. From there, bitcoin price could proceed to the area of interest around $13,000 and a move higher could lead to a test of the highs closer to $16,000.

Stochastic appears to be bottoming out and ready to turn back up without even hitting oversold levels, which suggests that bulls are eager to take advantage of these lower prices. RSI seems to have some room to drop, though, so another dip may be in order.

Market Factors

Reports that Bitconnect is closing reminded traders of the stability of bitcoin compared to rival altcoins, which could actually turn out to be scams. So far, it looks like the test of the $10,000 major psychological level has drawn more buyers looking to get in at cheaper prices.

However, some analysts remarked that bitcoin price hasn’t bottomed out yet and could test further lows closer to $5,000. Fears of cryptocurrency bans in China and South Korea are being blamed for the recent slide but many believe that the overbought market is a factor as well.

With that, it’s no surprise that bitcoin has reverted to the mean and may only be seeing increased buying pressure at lower levels.

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price staged a massive selloff after breaking below the descending triangle bottom previously highlighted.
  • Price has dropped by around $3,000 and could have a few more losses to go before bottoming out.
  • Bitcoin is currently finding support at a Fib retracement level but might be due for a larger pullback.

Bitcoin price sold off sharply earlier this week and may have a few more losses lined up before bulls return.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on the daily time frame to show that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect stronger bullish momentum and the 100 SMA is currently holding as dynamic support.

Stochastic also looks ready to turn higher but has a bit of room to go before hitting oversold levels. This suggests that bitcoin price could still dip to the ascending trend line support on the daily chart. This is located closer to the $9,000 level.

RSI also has some room to drop so bitcoin price could follow suit. A return in bullish momentum could lead to a move up to the nearby area of interest at $12,000-13,000 while a break below the trend line could still find support at the 200 SMA.

Market Factors

Persistent concerns on the ongoing crackdown in bitcoin trading and mining in South Korea and China are weighing heavily on bitcoin price and other cryptocurrencies. When the tech level broke, more sellers joined in and exacerbated the drop.

Meanwhile, the dollar is also on weak footing as the euphoria over the tax plan has faded and the attention is turning to a possible government shutdown. Equities also closed in the red as the oil price decline weighed heavily on the energy sector.

More updates on the bitcoin crackdown in South Korea could influence price from here, although another dip could encourage bulls to buy at cheaper levels.

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price is back to testing the support of its descending triangle pattern, which also happens to be the neckline of a complex head and shoulders formation.
  • A break below this $13,000 area could lead to a drop of around $6,000 or the same height as the chart formations.
  • A bounce, on the other hand, could keep the consolidation going.

Bitcoin price is making another attempt to break below the support at $13,000 and doing so would mark the start of a longer-term drop.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. The 100 SMA also appears to be holding as dynamic resistance as well.

Stochastic is pointing down to show that sellers are regaining the upper hand. RSI is on the move south, so bitcoin price could follow suit. The next visible area of interest on the 4-hour time frame is around the $9,000 level.

Market Factors

More headlines on South Korea’s plans to stop bitcoin trading in the country are leading investors to liquidate their long positions in anticipation of lower volumes and activity down the line.

Some statements indicated that the government simply wants to remove anonymity in transactions, leading some to believe that bitcoin trading could carry on. A statement from Shinhan Bank, however, signaled that it does not intend to introduce an identity verification service for deposits and withdrawals from virtual bank accounts:

“We’ve developed a system to introduce identifying virtual account customers in accordance with the government’s efforts to curb the cryptocurrency craze. However, we decided to scrap the service enabling the trade of digital tokens which has become a serious social issue.”

So far, several politicians and citizens have signed petitions to demand that the government step back from adopting the measure.

 

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price continues to tread sideways and is still hovering around the bottom of its descending triangle on the 4-hour chart.
  • Price looks ready for a bounce off support as a double bottom is forming.
  • Bitcoin has yet to break past the small reversal pattern’s neckline around $14,000 before confirming the climb.

Bitcoin price can’t quite seem to gain bullish momentum to climb up to the triangle resistance, but buyers are still defending support.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to show that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the bottom of the triangle is more likely to break than to hold.

Stochastic is turning higher, though, so bulls could still regain control of bitcoin price and push it back up for a test of the triangle resistance at $15,000. This is also close to the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point, which might hold as resistance.

RSI is also on the move up to indicate that buyers have the upper hand. However, if both oscillators hit overbought levels and turn back down soon, sellers could make another attempt at pushing bitcoin price below the triangle support at $13,000. Note that the triangle is around $6,000 tall so the resulting drop could be of the same height.

Market Factors

Dollar demand has once again picked up late last week when US CPI and retail sales came in mostly in stronger than expected. Headline CPI came in line with estimates of a 0.1% uptick while the core reading beat expectations with a 0.3% gain versus the estimated 0.2% increase.

As for bitcoin price itself, this particular cryptocurrency seems to be losing ground to its altcoin rivals on the lack of volatility. Alternative digital currencies are offering higher potential returns and are much cheaper, after all.

Besides, the crackdown in China and South Korea is once again threatening volumes and global activity in bitcoin.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin price traded lower this past week and tested the $12,600 support against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $13,800 on the 4-hours chart of BTC/USD (data feed from SimpleFX).
  • The price has to break the $14,500 level and the 100 simple moving average to gain upside momentum.

Bitcoin price is stable above the $12,600 against the US Dollar. BTC/USD could soon gain momentum above $14,500 to move past $15,000 in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Upside Move

This past week was slightly bearish for bitcoin price as it moved below the $14,000 level against the US Dollar. The price traded lower and moved towards the $12,200 level. A low was formed at $12,670 from where the price started an upside move. It traded above the $13,000 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $17,112 high to $12,670 low.

During the upside, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $13,800 on the 4-hours chart of BTC/USD. The pair managed to move above the $13,900 level. However, the upside move was protected by the $14,000 level and the 100 simple moving average. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $17,112 high to $12,670 low also acted as a resistance. It seems like the price has to move above the $14,500 level and the 100 SMA to gain upside momentum.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis BTC USD

Once there is a break above the $14,500 level, there are chances of it breaking the $15,000 level in the near term. The overall bias is stable above the $12,500 level with an initial support on the downside at $13,200.

Looking at the technical indicators:              

4-hours MACD – The MACD is showing a few positive signs of a trend change.

4-hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is struggling to move above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $12,500

Major Resistance Level – $14,500

 

Charts courtesy – SimpleFX

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price has formed lower highs and found support at $13,000, creating a descending triangle pattern.
  • Price is currently testing the bottom of the formation and might be due for  bounce back to support.
  • Technical indicators appear to be signaling that the consolidation could carry on.

Bitcoin price is trading inside a descending triangle pattern and is currently testing support.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This suggests that the triangle support is more likely to break than to hold, possibly sending bitcoin price down by $6,000 or the same height as the triangle formation.

These moving averages are also close to the triangle resistance, adding an extra ceiling in the event of a move higher. Stochastic is pointing down to show that sellers have the upper hand but RSI looks ready to turn higher and indicate a return in bullish momentum.

Market Factors

The US dollar was actually on weak footing as PPI numbers turned out weaker than expected and traders set their expectations lower for today’s CPI release. Note that downbeat inflation expectations are likely to weigh on Fed tightening odds.

Meanwhile, bitcoin price continues to reel from the lack of market interest as investors appear to be flocking to altcoins instead. South Korea also announced plans to ban bitcoin trading in the country, likely putting a huge dent on overall market activity.

In China, the government also ordered several mining facilities to close, causing costs to mine to surge.

“Some of our long-term hosting partners are facing a crisis of farm closure as mining resources in mainland China become more scarce, leading to rocketing costs of our cloud mining operation,” a statement from ViaBTC Technology Ltd., which runs the fourth-biggest bitcoin mining collective, said. “To guarantee the long run of cloud mining, ViaBTC has no choice but have to readjust our maintenance fees.”

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price is still within its ascending channel on the 1-hour time frame and has bounced off support.
  • A bit more bullish momentum can be seen as price broke past a small descending trend line.
  • Technical indicators, however, are signaling that bearish pressure could kick in soon.

Bitcoin price looks ready to resume its climb to the channel resistance but there are indications of bearish pressure.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is crossing below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 1-hour chart to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, sellers could regain the upper hand and lead to another test of the nearby support at $14,000.

Stochastic is also pointing down to indicate that selling pressure is present while RSI appears to be turning back south from its climb. A break below the channel support could mark the start of a longer-term selloff.

But if bulls continue to charge, the price could test the area of interest around $16,000 next then make its way up to the resistance at $17,500 or higher.

Market Factors

Dollar demand has taken a hit after China hinted that it might trim its holdings of US Treasuries. However, it has also been reported that China ordered closing down of bitcoin mining operations as a step further in curbing cryptocurrency activity in the mainland.

Regulation is a pain in the neck for bitcoin price these days as ETF applications have been withdrawn in facing SEC scrutiny while South Korea continues to clamp down activity as well. With that, traders appear more interested in other altcoins that are cheaper and facing fewer barriers.

US PPI is due next and could provide an indication of how inflation readings might turn out, thereby influencing Fed tightening expectations. Downbeat results could mean more dollar weakness, which bitcoin price could take advantage of, while upside surprises could trigger a channel breakdown.

Keep in mind, however, that US equities have retreated lately on fresh NAFTA concerns that might keep risk aversion in play.

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price appears ready for another selloff as price has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the 1-hour chart.
  • Price has yet to break below the neckline around the $14,000 major psychological support.
  • The chart pattern is approximately $3,000 tall so the resulting drop could be of the same height.

Bitcoin price is forming yet another selloff signal on a short-term time frame, but technical indicators are looking mixed.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the rally could continue. However, the gap between the moving averages has narrowed significantly to show that a downward crossover and and pickup in bearish momentum is imminent.

A break below the neckline could take bitcoin price down to the $10,000-11,000 region next while a bounce could lead to a move up to $15,000 then the highs at $17,000.

Stochastic is pulling up from the oversold region to signal a return in buying momentum while RSI also appears to be slowly heading north as well.

Market Factors

Dollar demand has once again ticked higher on record high Treasury yields, as well as record closes for equity indices. Traders are now looking ahead to a positive earnings season scheduled to start on Friday, and these upbeat expectations are likely to be sustained as tax reform kicks in.

Meanwhile, bitcoin price continues to reel from the hesitation among ETFs facing SEC regulation. A couple of funds withdrew their applications, citing pushback from the financial watchdog. Direxion Shares ETF Trust secretary Angela Brickl wrote:

“On a call with the Staff on January 5, 2018, the Staff expressed concerns regarding the liquidity and valuation of the underlying instruments in which the Fund intends to primarily invest and requested that the Trust withdraw the Amendment until such time as these concerns are resolved. In response to the Staff’s request, the Trust respectfully requests withdrawal of the Amendment.”

This cryptocurrency is also losing ground to its altcoin rivals, as well as equities that are performing better.