100 SMA Holds The Key For Next Bitcoin Rally Above $12K: Here’s Why

Aayush Jindal

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:15 pm

2 mins read

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Bitcoin found support near $11,120 and started an upward move against the US Dollar. However, BTC must break $11,650 and the 100 hourly SMA to start a fresh rally.

Bitcoin is slowly recovering from the $11,150 and $11,200 support levels.
The price is facing a couple of hurdles near the $11,600 and $11,650 levels.
There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $11,620 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair must clear the $11,650 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average to start a fresh rally.

Bitcoin Price is Facing Hurdles

Recently, we saw a sharp decline in bitcoin price below the $11,500 support level against the US Dollar. BTC even traded below the $11,200 support level and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

A swing low was formed near $11,130 and the price started a slowly and steady recovery wave. It recovered above the $11,200 and $11,400 levels. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $12,084 high to $11,130 low.

Bitcoin price even climbed above the $11,500 pivot level, but it is facing a strong resistance near $11,650. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $11,620 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin price trades above $11,200. Source: TradingView.com

The trend line is close to the 100 hourly SMA, which is preventing an upside break above the $11,650 level. The price is also struggling to close above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $12,084 high to $11,130 low.

If there is a successful break above the trend line, the 100 hourly SMA, and $11,650, the price is likely to start a strong rally. The next resistance is near the $11,800 level, above which the bulls are likely to aim more upsides above the $12,000 and $12,050 levels.

Fresh Decline in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the trend line, the 100 hourly SMA, and $11,650, then there are chances of a fresh decline. An initial support is seen near the $11,400 level.

The main support is now near the $11,120 level, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline below the $11,000 support. In the mentioned case, the price could even test $10,500 (as discussed in yesterday’s analysis using the daily chart).

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is about to move into the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently sliding below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $11,400, followed by $11,120.

Major Resistance Levels – $11,650, $11,800 and $12,000.

Aayush Jindal

Aayush Jindal, a luminary in the world of financial markets, whose expertise spans over 15 illustrious years in the realms of Forex and cryptocurrency trading. Renowned for his unparalleled proficiency in providing technical analysis, Aayush is a trusted advisor and senior market expert to investors worldwide, guiding them through the intricate landscapes of modern finance with his keen insights and astute chart analysis.

From a young age, Aayush exhibited a natural aptitude for deciphering complex systems and unraveling patterns. Fueled by an insatiable curiosity for understanding market dynamics, he embarked on a journey that would lead him to become one of the foremost authorities in the fields of Forex and crypto trading. With a meticulous eye for detail and an unwavering commitment to excellence, Aayush honed his craft over the years, mastering the art of technical analysis and chart interpretation.
As a software engineer, Aayush harnesses the power of technology to optimize trading strategies and develop innovative solutions for navigating the volatile waters of financial markets. His background in software engineering has equipped him with a unique skill set, enabling him to leverage cutting-edge tools and algorithms to gain a competitive edge in an ever-evolving landscape.

In addition to his roles in finance and technology, Aayush serves as the director of a prestigious IT company, where he spearheads initiatives aimed at driving digital innovation and transformation. Under his visionary leadership, the company has flourished, cementing its position as a leader in the tech industry and paving the way for groundbreaking advancements in software development and IT solutions.

Despite his demanding professional commitments, Aayush is a firm believer in the importance of work-life balance. An avid traveler and adventurer, he finds solace in exploring new destinations, immersing himself in different cultures, and forging lasting memories along the way. Whether he's trekking through the Himalayas, diving in the azure waters of the Maldives, or experiencing the vibrant energy of bustling metropolises, Aayush embraces every opportunity to broaden his horizons and create unforgettable experiences.

Aayush's journey to success is marked by a relentless pursuit of excellence and a steadfast commitment to continuous learning and growth. His academic achievements are a testament to his dedication and passion for excellence, having completed his software engineering with honors and excelling in every department.

At his core, Aayush is driven by a profound passion for analyzing markets and uncovering profitable opportunities amidst volatility. Whether he's poring over price charts, identifying key support and resistance levels, or providing insightful analysis to his clients and followers, Aayush's unwavering dedication to his craft sets him apart as a true industry leader and a beacon of inspiration to aspiring traders around the globe.

In a world where uncertainty reigns supreme, Aayush Jindal stands as a guiding light, illuminating the path to financial success with his unparalleled expertise, unwavering integrity, and boundless enthusiasm for the markets.

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