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Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 24/2/2015 –Imminent Breakout

Bitcoin has been consolidating since hitting a low around 166. Price has rebounded above 300 briefly, and then retreated. Still, BTCUSD has been hanging onto the consolidation mode in what appears to be a triangle. With price action already so close to the triangle apex, a breakout is imminent, but it will not be of much significance by itself. Let’s see what other technical clues we will need.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 24/2/2015 Daily Chart
btcusd daily chart 24/2/2015
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows that since price tagged 300, bearish candles have dominated. In fact, last Friday’s bearish candle combined with the previous 4 daily candles is a bearish signal. Furthermore, a few candles back, we witnessed a bearish engulfing candle.

Price action has been holding below the 200-, 100-, and even 50-day SMAs, showing that the bearish bias from the prevailing downtrend is still strong. Also, the RSI has held under 60, which is a sign that the prevailing bearish momentum is intact. On top of that, the RSI and price action is showing a bearish signal call negative reversal (coined by RSI guru Andrew Cardwell), which is essentially a lower high in price coinciding with a higher high in the RSI. Another downswing is favored.

The breakout to the downside is imminent, but we might want to see some shifts and thresholds broken in the near-term/short-term first.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 24/2/2015 4H Chart
bitcoin 4h chart 2/24
(click to enlarge)

In the 4H chart we actually see some bullish bias. Price has been holding above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. The RSI has tagged above 70 and has since held above 40, except for a brief moment at the beginning of this week. Basically, with the bullish bias still in play in the short-term, a rally above 248 ( a break above the previous high and the triangle resistance) would signal bullish continuation for the short-term, and further consolidation for the medium-term.

However, if price instead falls below 228, bitcoin would have cleared the rising trendline, last week’s low, and therefore expose the low on the year just under 170.

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