After forming a head and shoulders pattern during the April 6th session, bitcoin started to trade in a range during the April 7th session as we can see in the 1H chart below:
Here are some observations from the 1H chart:
1) There was a head and shoulders pattern and price is so far consolidating mostly under the structure’s neckline , which was around 256.
2) the range during the April 7th session was between roughly 253 and 258.
3) The RSI has broken below 40, but has not tagged 30. This shows loss of the prevailing bullish momentum, but also failure to establish bearish momentum.
4) BTCUSD price has fallen below the 100-, and 50-hour SMAs but is still above the 200-hour SMA. This shows that the market is no longer bullish, but still has a slight bullish bias. It is definitely not bearish yet.
5) Price has broken below a rising trendline.
These are mostly bearish signs, but very weak or premature ones so far. The fact that price held under 258, and did not threaten to break above the shoulder level around 260, is a good sign that bears are gaining control. At the moment, there is at least near-term downside risk towards the 250 handle, which also represents a previous resistance.
If price does reach 250, it will likely be challenged by a rising trendline seen in the 4H chart. A break below 250 and the rising trendline should then open up the March lows around 236. If the market does reach this level, it would likely be in bearish continuation and thus threaten to extend lower. Below 236 there is a support area around 205 before the 166.45 low on the year comes into play.
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