The weekend brought pain for Bitcoin, but that was always on the cards. My Friday’s Bitcoin price technical analysis Palpable Strain concluded on a bearish note saying that a close below $286 could bring in further decline, and as can be seen, the cryptocurrency did slump intraday to $276.57 before taking support from near the previous consolidation level of $275.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $281.26.
Now, the important question that must concern the trading community is: Is this relief from the support level for real or is it a trap? This analysis will aim to provide some answers.
Bitcoin Chart Structure – The recent decline from $298 to $276 diminishes the probability of an immediate higher top. A careful observation of the above-presented daily BTC-USD price chart reveals that Bitcoin is in a descending triangle – a bearish technical chart pattern which successfully matures 60-70% of the time. The Resistance has been marked by the downward sloping red line while the Support is horizontal.
Fibonacci Retracements – As stated previously many times, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $280 did provide an interim cushion to the Bitcoin. A decisive breach below this should set the next target at $268 – the 50% retracement.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence – The Histogram has sunk lower in the negative territory as MACD extends its slide. The latest values of Histogram, MACD and Signal Line are -2.3278, 3.9254 and 6.2531 respectively.
Momentum – The Momentum indicator has a present value of -7.7500.
Money Flow Index – As stated in the previous analysis, the divergence between MFI and price has brought losses to Bitcoin. The MFI now reads 59.7792.
Relative Strength Index – The RSI is nearly back to its neutral level with a value of 51.1520.
Adopt a simple strategy: Short on rallies up to the resistance and cover partial positions near the support, and the remaining below it. Do not forget to place stop-loss just beyond the resistance.