Bitcoin Price Watch; Here’s Where We Are Looking This Evening

We are closing in on the end of another session out of Europe on Thursday and once again there’s plenty to discuss in the bitcoin price. Things have been pretty volatile this week so far (well, pretty volatile is something of an understatement) and we’re currently looking at a substantially weakened price as compares to the prices we were looking at towards the end of last year and into the early part of 2018.

With that said, however, most of the major tokens and coins have gained strength during today’s session, with sentiment easing somewhat heading into the US afternoon. The hope is that this shift to positive sentiment will continue and, in turn, will serve up a continued recovery across the major assets in the space – of which bitcoin, of course, is very much the flagship right now.

So that’s what’s happening behind the scenes – what’s on the horizon nearer term?

Well, that’s what we’re here to figure out.

As ever, take a look at the chart below before we get into the nitty-gritty of our intraday analysis. The chart is a one-minute candlestick chart and it’s got our primary range overlaid in green.

As the chart shows, then, the range we are looking at for the session this evening comes in as defined by support to the downside at 11579 and resistance to 11809. That’s a pretty wide range but we’re going to stick with our breakout strategy for today, just to make sure we aren’t taking on too much risk with careless intrarange entries.

So, if we see price close above resistance, we’ll jump in long towards a target of 12000 flat. Conversely, if we get a close below support, we’ll be in short towards a downside target of 11480.

Let’s see how things play out and we’ll revisit on Friday morning.

Charts courtesy of Trading View


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ETH/USD

Ethereum rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, after bouncing from a significant trend line. It did struggle at the $1100 level from what I see, so having said that I am a bit cautious. If we can break above the $1100 level, then I think we could go bit higher, perhaps as high as $1300 level. The lack of volume continues to be a serious problem, as rallies continue to be very light. Because of this, I am a bit cautious, so I would be very slow to add to any long positions. I suspect that this could be a bit of a “dead cat bounce.”

 

ETH/BTC

Ethereum markets rallied a bit against Bitcoin, but on almost no volume. Because of this, it appears that the market is entering a consolidation phase, somewhere between the 0.08 level on the bottom, and the 0.10 level on the top. Because of this, I think that the market continues its sideways action overall.

Thanks for watching, I’ll be back tomorrow.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin has been absolutely pummeled over the last couple of sessions, but during the trading session on Thursday, we are starting to see an attempt to rally. By breaking above the $12,000 level, we have a potential reversal happening, but I would be very cautious about this, as it could be a “bull trap.” One of the things that I am truly concerned about is that although the candlestick looks likely to show a bullish proclivity, the volume simply is not there. In fact, I would wait until we break above $14,000 to be convinced.

 

BTC/JPY

Bitcoin rallied against the Japanese yen as well, showing a bit more volume than against the US dollar. If we can break above the ¥1.5 million level, we may have a chance to go higher. However, and until that happens, I remain unconvinced and think that we see more selling at higher levels. If we break down below the ¥1 million level, the market unwinds rather quickly.

Thanks for watching, I’ll be back tomorrow.

DASH/USD

Dash traders rallied during the session on Thursday, breaking above the $800 level. However, even though this is a bullish move, we have a significant lack of volume. The question now is will we see more people coming back into this place? A break above the $900 level would be a bit more convincing, but at this point I think that it’s likely that we will see a move below $750 again.

 

LTC/USD

The Litecoin markets rallied slightly as well, but on even less volume. We are reaching towards the 20 SMA in the Bollinger Band indicator, so it’s likely that this market continues to roll over going forward, especially considering that there is a serious lack of volume. I think that we will test the lows again.

Thanks for watching, I’ll be back tomorrow.

Over the years, we have seen multiple stories regarding people scamming Bitcoin holders. It is a very worrisome trend which only grows more popular, it seems. More specifically, a group of fake Interpol agents scammed Russian tourists out of their Bitcoin holdings. A total amount of 4 million Baht worth of BTC was taken from them. It is not the first nor the last time such incidents will occur. An official investigation is underway to hopefully retrieve the stolen money.

According to Thai Visa, the incident took place in Muang District. More specifically, a Russian couple found themselves face to face with two Russian men. At that time, the men identified themselves as Interpol agents. They immediately claimed the couple was involved in some irregular Bitcoin activity. No evidence of these claims was ever provided during the incident. That is not surprising, as it is clear these individuals were looking to scam the Bitcoin holders regardless.

Fake Interpol Agents Want Your Bitcoins

By taking the couple by force, the tone was set rather quickly. A third Russian man entered the room shortly afterward. His demand is simple: the password for the netbook computer. Additionally, he obtained the Bitcoin account password. It is unclear if this applies to an exchange or a desktop wallet. For now, the details regarding that particular aspect remain rather vague. Either way, the account held a total of 100,000 Euro worth of Bitcoin.

The couple was scared and eventually gave in. Facing a threat of being drugged and handed to the Thai police is not all that appealing. It took a total of five hours before the fake Interpol agents got what they wanted. Thankfully, no physical harm is done to the couple, although they are still pretty shaken up. After contacting the Thai police, we now have to await what the investigation turns up. Bitcoin transactions are rather easy to trace due to the transparent nature of its blockchain.

So far, it seems the fake Interpol agents have fled to Malaysia. This seems to confirm the Thai police knows all too well what is going on or who is behind this theft. Assuming that is the case, it should be easy to rectify the situation. Whether or not the Russian couple will get their money back, seems highly unlikely. It is evident cryptocurrencies will continue to attract criminals all over the world. This is a rather problematic development, but there’s little one can do about it. Criminals have become very bold in their attempt to steal BTC, though.

It’s Thursday morning and it’s time to get moving on our twice daily bitcoin price analysis for the start of the European session. Things have been moving pretty fast throughout the session and, as many reading will almost certainly be aware, price is down pretty much across the board in the crypto space on the back of a couple of key fundamental developments. Well, the fundamental developments got things moving and this led to a whole host of collateral selling, primarily rooted in idea that people are unloading positions in anticipation of things falling further.

When we see this sort of action in the bitcoin price (and indeed in the wider cryptocurrency space), all that we can really do (from a long-term perspective) is to hold on to coins in anticipation of a return to the overarching upside momentum. Things could fall further but selling out at these levels is only going to compound the recent action and weaken the market.

From an intraday perspective, however, there’s no directional bias. We can jump in long if things start to strengthen but we won’t hesitate to get in short if things break to the downside.

So, with all this in place, let’s get some levels that we can use for the session. As ever, take a quick look at the chart below to get an idea where things stand before we get started. It’s a one-minute candlestick chart and it’s got our primary range overlaid in green.

As the chart shows, then, the range we are looking at for the session today comes in as defined by support to the downside at 11439 and resistance to the upside at 11637.

We’ll get into a long trade on a close above resistance, with a target of 11750. Conversely, a close below support will have us in short towards a downside target of 11325.

Let’s see what happens.

Charts courtesy of Trading View

With the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies gradually trending towards $1 trillion, increasing from just under $20 billion at the start of 2017 to over $700 billion at the beginning of the current year, it’s simply a good time to invest in the revolutionary technology called blockchain. Last year alone, bitcoin, the pioneer cryptocurrency, which introduced the blockchain technology too, rose from the $1000 region at the beginning of the year to over $19,000 at a point during the year.

Over the past month, or so, cryptocurrencies including ethereum, litecoin and ripple have enjoyed impressive rallies too. With governments and financial institutions around the world exploring the possibilities of issuing some form of cryptocurrency to benefit from the improved efficiency that blockchain powered money brings to the digital world, it’s safe to say that cryptocurrencies are here for the long haul and they’re likely to change the way we use money. The case for investing in blockchain and cryptocurrencies has never been stronger. The problem, however, is that the cryptocurrency market is plagued with instability and many useless coins, making it difficult for long-term investors to find a good entry points. Moreover, at present, partly because it’s still early days, it’s currently difficult to determine what a fair value is for cryptocurrencies. So this leaves the question of how to, genuinely, benefit from the blockchain and cryptocurrency revolution over the long term.

One effective way is to invest in cryptocurrency mining, the process that generates new cryptocurrencies. Many of the major cryptocurrencies including bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin depend on mining to function.

What miners do and why they’re important

Mining cryptocurrencies simply has to do with the process of verifying cryptocurrency transactions and adding them to the public ledger. Recall that crypto transactions are peer-to-peer, which means there are no intermediaries. In order to maintain the integrity of the system and avoid double spending, which had been one of the things that the traditional banks do, miners serve as witnesses to transactions. To verify transactions, miners use a computer or group of computers to solve a mathematical puzzle, called cryptographic function and they are rewarded with freshly generated cryptocurrency – the part that’s actually the mining. Miners can either sell the cryptocurrency rewards for fiat money on exchanges or keep them as an investment to bet on an increase in the value of the cryptocurrency. Just to point it out, it’s the process of mining described here that leads to an increase in the number of cryptocurrencies in circulation.

Is cryptocurrency mining profitable?

In a similar fashion to the saying that “not all cryptocurrencies are created equal,” all cryptocurrencies aren’t equally profitable. Cryptocurrency mining is designed to increase in difficulty as the number of miners of a particular cryptocurrency increases and the number that cryptocurrency in circulation increases. Consequentially, the cost of mining a cryptocurrency tends to increase as the usage of that cryptocurrency increases. So there’s simply no one formula to determine if cryptocurrency mining is profitable on an overall basis. Like all businesses, it would depend on the set up — like how much computational power is allocated to the mining of the cryptocurrencies of interest and the energy tariffs at the mining site. On a general basis, setting up a mining operation that is profitable depends on the ability of the owners to identify areas where energy costs are relatively lower and the cryptocurrencies that offer lower costs on a relative basis so they can assign them more computing power just to optimize operations.

Specific cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum have been said to be profitable for miners. For instance, bitcoin miners in China reportedly break even at $6,925 per bitcoin when energy cost in China is at its highest, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. With bitcoin hovering around the $14,000 mark, this means that bitcoin miners in China potentially making about 100 percent profit.

In addition, a calculation on the website Ethereumin suggests that, with a Geass ASIC setup, which cost about $2,289 with the capability to provide 200 MH/s (mega hashes per second) in hash rate, your profit could be 18.215 ETH in a year. With this sort of profit margin, it’s safe to say that a properly set up mining business should be profitable over the long haul.

How to Invest In Cryptocurrency Mining

There are mainly two ways to invest in the cryptocurrency mining business. You can setup either your own mining operation or investing in a mining business. If you have the technical expertise and time to start your own mining rig, as it’s commonly called, it could be profitable. However, for most people, the best option would be to invest in a mining business and one of the easiest options is to buy tokens during the ICO of a cryptocurrency mining company.

MoonLite is one of such companies. The MoonLite project is an industrial scale cryptocurrency mining operation focusing on the mining of all forms of bitcoin, litecoin and dash.

Cryptocurrency mining operations have been under pressure in recent times for the amount of energy they consume. In fact, Power Compare, a U.K. energy tariffs comparison platform cited Digiconomist, a cryptocurrency power usage tracking website, to suggest that bitcoin mining operations now account for approximately 0.13 percent of the total global electricity consumption. Going by that number, if bitcoin miners were a country, they would be the 61st largest consumer of electricity in the world. While some researchers have argued that Digiconomist’s data has a few layers of error in it, there’s no denying that bitcoin mining consumes a considerable amount of energy — just like any set up of computers doing high-level computation.

These consumption issues have started making governments around the world look into crypto mining operations. In the end, only cryptocurrency mining projects built to be efficient in terms of energy would win. That’s one thing to like about the Moonlite project.

Moonlite is building its first datacenter in Iceland, which is the unofficial capital of the world datacenter due to its inherent need for more heat energy that datacenters could offer. Moonlite datacenter will be running at roughly 14.6MW with 100 percent of the power coming from green sources. The mining company has been able to lock down a 12-year fixed and guaranteed energy cost with the Icelandic Power Producer at a huge discount to the local energy cost. It’s worthy to note that Iceland already has one of the cheapest energy tariffs in the world.

MoonLite plans to start its ICO on February 28 although it’s currently offering a presale, which will end before the start of the main ICO. Another unique thing about the MoonLite ICO, unlike many ICOs, is that the MoonLite tokens confer voting rights on all of the company’s financial, HR and branding affairs through Secure.Vote. That offers an extra layer of security and transparency that’s often missing in the ICO market.

To bring it all together, in world that’s filled with over a thousand cryptocurrencies from which one is to decide which ones are worth an investment, it might help to look in the direction of companies like MoonLite who help bring cryptocurrencies to the market.

Transaction accelerators have become a lot more popular as of late. This is mainly due to Bitcoin’s network issues as of late. People don’t like to pay high fees or wait for network confirmations. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many free acceleration services out there for Bitcoin users. ConfirmTX is one of those services, but they charge a hefty fee to get transactions through. It seems that paying for this service will not necessarily result in any success whatsoever.

It is always troublesome when a Bitcoin transaction accelerator charges a fee for their service. While it is commendable to see the service help Bitcoin users out, they are not exactly the most reliable either. Their fee is $5 for a major transaction, which is still acceptable. However, if people don’t see their transaction sped up whatsoever, there is no reason to pay for it. After all, a $5 fee is not all that much compared to what a regular transaction could cost.

ConfirmTX Users Voice Complaints

With ConfirmTX, it seems some people have run into issues lately. More specifically, there are complaints about no transactions being accelerated for days on end. Nor are people getting any response to their customer support tickets either, which is always bothersome. It is unclear how this situation will evolve in the coming days and weeks. For now, your mileage will vary when using this service, by the look of things.

It is evident the Bitcoin world needs more services like these. More specifically, users need a reliable way to accelerate transactions. It seems the mempool has finally cleared out a bit, but this may only be temporary. Bitcoin has had issues for quite some time now. Until that situation improves, high fees will remain a normal occurrence. It also means people will continue to rely on services such as ConfirmTX. We can only hope the team provides a more reliable service at that point, though.

It is unclear what the future will hold for Bitcoin and its transaction accelerators. More specifically, the Bitcoin network issues are far from over, despite this temporary reprieve. No one knows what next week will bring, though. ConfirmTX will have some explaining to do when it comes to their lack of customer service. There are other services out there which charge even higher fees, though. Rest assured there will be some more issues regarding Bitcoin transactions in the near future.

Key Highlights

  • Ethereum classic price declined sharply before forming a short-term low at $22.05 against the US dollar.
  • There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at $34.00 on the hourly chart of the ETC/USD pair (Data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair is currently recovering, but it is facing a major resistance near the $32.00 area.

Ethereum classic price recovered recently after a major decline against the US Dollar and Bitcoin. ETC/USD is correcting higher, but it is finding offers around $32.00.

Ethereum Classic Price Upside Hurdles

There were continuous declines in ETC price as it moved below the $30.00 support against the US dollar. The price even broke the $25.00 support and traded toward the $22.00 level. A low was formed at $22.05 from where an upside correction was initiated. It has moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $47.29 high to $22.05 low.

However, there are many resistances on the upside starting with $31.60. The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $47.29 high to $22.05 low is at $31.60 to prevent upsides. Moreover, there is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance at $34.00 on the hourly chart of the ETC/USD pair. Above the trend line resistance, the 100 hourly simple moving average is around $36.00. An intermediate resistance is the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $47.29 high to $22.05 low.

Ethereum Classic Price Technical Analysis ETC USD

Therefore, there are clear hurdles near $32.00 and $34.00. It won’t be easy for buyers to break both levels and move above $35.00 in the near term. On the downside, an initial support is at $25.00, followed by the last swing low of $22.00.

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETC/USD is slowly moving back in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETC/USD is moving down towards the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $25.00

Major Resistance Level – $34.00

 

Charts courtesy – Trading View, Kraken

Crypto markets are no stranger to volatility however this past week has been particularly painful. The total market capacity of all cryptocurrencies fell from $740 billion to $420 billion in just four days, a brutal drop of over 40%. At the time of writing markets appear to be showing signs of recovery and are on the way back up again with over a hundred billion dollars added back since yesterday.

Speculation on the cause of the crash is rife but it would be more pertinent to simply look at historical charts to see if there is a pattern. It turns out that this has occurred every January since 2014. In what appears to be a natural cycle in the markets the price of Bitcoin and its siblings has dropped significantly at this time of year for the past five years at least (source: Coinmarketcap.com).

This year’s market slump has been amplified by the fact that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are now household names, covered by mainstream media, which is adept at disseminating fear, uncertainty and doubt. Big names such as Reuters, CNBC and Bloomberg have repeatedly got things wrong about outright crypto bans in South Korea which simply haven’t happened (yet). FUD has fueled the fires and panic selling from largely inexperienced and new participants to cryptocurrencies has created a wave of fear over the entire market collapsing. As one famous investor once said; “be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.”

Crypto is not going to die, markets are cyclical and need to correct on occasion, and January is as good a month as any. There are a number of possibilities for this; firstly we need to look towards Asia where a large proportion of digital currency trading occurs. Chinese Lunar New Year is typically a time when millions of people have time off work to travel back home to visit family. They need fiat for this so some profit taking and a selloff is expected.

Other factors such as the approach of the end of the tax year when people need to get their financial houses in order could also contribute. Additionally there have been other big influences such as the expiration of the first ever Bitcoin futures contracts this week. All could and probably have affected market sentiment and price action.

Waves of new traders feeding off unsubstantiated Facebook groups and Tweeter feeds trying to make a quick buck have added to the volatility. FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and FOMO (fear of missing out) have created unnatural spikes in altcoin charts and coins come in and out of favour on a shill or a whim. Only when it is realized that crypto has not collapsed and markets do go down as well as to the moon will things settle down. We are still at the emergent stage of what is gearing up to be a mushrooming market and a technological life changer, there is no need to panic!