Brian Kelly, CNBC’s foremost crypto analyst, has long been held as a Bitcoin permabull in the eyes of many. His most recent appearance on CNBC only cemented this theme, as Kelly reasoned why the crypto market could head upwards within the next few days.
Could the CBoE’s Bitcoin Futures Expiry Push Prices Upwards? Brian Kelly Thinks So
On Tuesday, the crypto market saw a strong rebound of near-YTD lows, with a majority of assets posting gains of upwards of 7-8%.
While this move was welcomed by cryptocurrency bulls, it was unclear if there was a catalyst for this specific recovery. Nonetheless, CNBC Fast Money’s Brian Kelly did his best to postulate the reasoning behind this resurgence on prices.
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) August 15, 2018
Kelly opened up his segment by calling the market’s recent price action “a wild ride,” alluding to the motions the market has gone through on a near-daily basis.
The trader first drew attention to the average performance of BTC before, during, and after the expiry of CBOE Bitcoin futures.
According to statistics gathered by an associate of Kelly’s, BTC often does poorly in the days leading up to an expiry date, posting losses of an average of 7%. But as an expiry date nears and passes, BTC experiences an average of a 10% move upwards.
Moreover, the founder of the BKCM fund went on to bring up previous expiry events, where Bitcoin surged nearly 20% in a mere six days following mid-April’s futures expiry.
So why is this statistic relevant you may ask.
Well on August 15th, the most recent set of CBOE futures expired, as the cryptocurrency market coincidentally saw a strong recovery. While Kelly did not explicitly state that Bitcoin could undergo a move upwards, it has become increasingly apparent that he expects the market to see positive bouts of price action over the next few days.
Brian Kelly: Bitcoin Could Undergo a Short Squeeze over the Next Few Days
To bring more credence to his unrelenting bullish sentiment, Kelly brought up a chart of all short positions on BitFenix.
Although short positions have increased drastically since the start of August, the CNBC trader noted that August 15th’s bounce resulted in many short sellers covering their positions.
As such, Kelly added that Bitcoin could undergo a short squeeze as a result of the “short-term seasonality” of a futures expiry event.
Throughout this segment, the crypto bull only discussed Bitcoin, leading a CNBC panelist to ask if altcoins would bottom out along with the foremost digital asset. Staying in line with his permabull attitude, he responded, stating:
“They (altcoins) are still quite correlated (with Bitcoin). Over the last 60 days or so, Bitcoin has really been the leader — a lot of that had to do with the speculation about an ETF. But what you did see today is stuff like Ethereum almost 10% off yesterday’s lows, stuff like Stellar Lumens — still holding up quite well. So yes, if you get a 10 or 15 percent run on Bitcoin on a short squeeze, it should bring everything else back up.”
However, some had their doubts, including CNBC Fast Money trader Dan Nathan, who questioned the permabull, asking if the crypto market could see further capitulation.
Turning the question somewhat on its head, Kelly noted that the $5,900 price level will prove to be a strong line of support if a sell-off continues. Regardless, it is evident that with this CNBC Fast Money episode whirring by, that Brian Kelly remains as bullish as ever.
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