After an April that renewed the hope of many for Bitcoin’s future, the number one digital asset has started May strong too. The entire market capitalisation of Bitcoin alone today surpassed the psychological milestone of $100 billion for the first time since last November.
The increased buying has been cause for celebration amongst much of the Bitcoin community, and calls that the bottom of the bear market is well and truly in are growing louder. However, one divisive YouTuber and former Wall Street trader still holds the position that lower prices could be on the horizon.
The Bitcoin Bear: An Increasingly Endangered Species
YouTube technical analyst and former Wall Street trader Tone Vays has just released a new segment of his not-quite-daily Trading Bitcoin YouTube show. The analyst is well-known in the Bitcoin community for his refusal to get wrapped up in news events and developments in the crypto space when discussing price. He has been consistently calling for a lower bottom than the December price of around $3,200, commonly held to be the bottom of the last/current bear market.
Vays goes strictly by the charts and in his latest episode, broadcast from a Mexican airport, he discusses the recent Bitcoin price surge to above $5,800. From analysis of monthly, weekly, daily, 12-hour, and 4-hour charts, the analyst reiterated the conclusion made in his previous video that the bottom is only about 40 percent likely to be in. He did, however, admit that the likelihood of the price not dropping below $3,200 seems to increase daily too.
Today, he stated:
“I have not seen anything yet that tells me that the low is in… I will wait for the perfect trade.”
From closer analysis of the charts, Vays speculates that the price is likely to go up from here but not by much. He states that Bitcoin price is likely to bounce off resistance in the $6,000 to $6,200 range. It will then likely head back down to around $4,000 or perhaps lower. Vays does remind viewers that reevaluations must be constantly made in order to trade successfully and that a crucial time to pay attention will be as the price gets close to $6,000.
You’re Not Alone, Tone!
Vays’s mid-term pessimism continues to stand at odds with most of the Bitcoin community. Tweets expressing immense bullishness have returned to CryptoTwitter in recent weeks.
I will give you some buzzwords now, which should make you bullish. Inhale the hopium, exhale slowly.
– Halving 2020
– Digital Gold
– Store of value
– Bakkt (lol)
– 1 BTC = $1M by EOY
— Blackbeard (@crypto_blkbeard) May 3, 2019
Bitcoin is breaking the 52 (yearly) moving average + parabolic move
Thanks to peter and Murad for spotting it today pic.twitter.com/0XXE2d6XDQ
— Master⚡️250k/6.25k BTC/LTC 2021 (@MASTERBTCLTC) May 3, 2019
A recent report by crypto investment analysis firm Delphi Digital, also provides evidence to suggest that the market bottomed in December 2018. The company bases its analysis on the number of wallets that appear to be holding Bitcoin long-term returning to their 2015 bottom levels, indicating that those that were prepared to sell have now done so.
However, Vays is not quite alone in his belief that more blood needs be shed prior to the market resuming a consistent upwards trend.
Lucid Investments’s Tyler Jenks firmly believes that we will see a $1,000 Bitcoin before a $10,000 one. Although he hasn’t posted about price since the very latest upswing, the veteran trader believes that the Bitcoin price must return down to the trend line it was following prior to the mania of 2017. He recently Tweeted:
OK. I have not changed my mind that the final bottom for Bitcoin will be $1,000 or lower with almost certainty(99%). I only have 80% confidence that $3180 was THE bottom (the question asked) because we could hit a series of lower lows that than run up before heading lower.
— Tyler Jenks (@LucidInvestment) April 22, 2019
Similarly, Vinny Lingham, the South African crypto entrepreneur and Civic (CVC) CEO, believes that we are likely to see more downside. Like Tone, he thinks the $6,200 area will provide too great resistance to overcome. He also muses on the necessity for the crypto market to decouple from Bitcoin before real bullish momentum can begin again. He does believe of Bitcoin blows past $6,200, we could be off to the races, however.
Like I’ve been saying…Winter isn’t over until we clear $6200… https://t.co/LqXT7P0xuE
— Vinny Lingham (@VinnyLingham) April 30, 2019
Featured Image from Shutterstock.