Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin MACD Histogram More Extended Than During Previous Bull Cycle

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 7:40 am

2 mins read

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The last crypto bull run brought Bitcoin into the lime light and public eye, and took the price of the digital asset skyrocketing to its all-time high price of $20,000.

Yet somehow, the current Bitcoin rally has caused the MACD histogram to become extended more so than any time during the previous bear and bull cycle, even during Bitcoin’s much publicized ascent during December 2017 – prior to the hype bubble pop that led to an over 85% correction.

Bitcoin MACD Histogram Demonstrates Power of Bulls

Following the early April rally that propelled the price of Bitcoin upward nearly $1,000 in an hour above resistance at $4,200, the cryptocurrency has once again gone parabolic, and has even reclaimed the $6,000 price level – a price level much of the market believed would prove to be seemingly unbreakable resistance. The same price level served as support throughout most of 2018 before Bitcoin fell through it in November to its eventual bear market bottom.

But now that most of the crypto market has concluded that the bottom is “in” for Bitcoin, investors and traders are finally starting to shed their disbelief and thus, bullish momentum has only increased despite the leading cryptocurrency by market cap being well overdue for a pullback or at least health consolidation.

The bullish momentum can clearly be seen in charts depicting Bitcoin’s long-term MACD, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator – an important trend change indicator used by crypto analysts to detect shifts in momentum.

Histogram [MACD extension above the smoothed out signal line] is currently more extended than anytime in the previous cycle…. pic.twitter.com/sI80jY8zqa

— dave the wave🌊🌓 (@davthewave) May 9, 2019

As prominent long-term chartist Dave the Wave points out, the MACD histogram has reached a point of being more extended than any other point during the last bear and bull market cycle, including the parabolic run in December 2017, where Bitcoin spiked from $10,000 to $20,000.

Consolidation Expected, Or Will The Rally Retrace When Parabola Breaks?

The trader concludes that “consolidation is looming” but has been saying that for weeks now, and is close to abandoning his model as incorrect. He further concludes that either his analysis is either incorrect, or that the current parabola will also be broken much like the December 2017 blow-off top.

Parabola it is.

One way or the other, this will end in tears – on the inevitable coming back down to earth… or the demise of my model.🧐 pic.twitter.com/4eeBf8F8eY

— dave the wave🌊🌓 (@davthewave) May 9, 2019

Parabolic breaks, as Peter Brandt has pointed out and successfully used to base price predictions on, typically result in an over 85% decline in the asset that saw the parabolic advance. Bitcoin corrected precisely that during the bear market, bringing the price of the cryptocurrency to $3,150.

While an 85% correction from here is incredibly unlikely, a short pullback and retest of support turned resistance would bring additional confidence to the crypto market, and reignite the next bull run.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.