Software engineer and Bitcoin proponent Vijay Boyapati believes that we are currently in a new bull market. Based on previous market cycles, he argues that most people will be shocked by the new all-time high set by Bitcoin.
Boyapati claims that the first stages of a bull run are usually slow. However, the culmination of an optimistic market cycle sees the price of a given asset rise in parabolic fashion.
Off to the Races at New Bitcoin All-Time High?
Vijay Boyapati posted his observations on previous Bitcoin bull markets in a Twitter thread earlier today. The software engineer at Peach Inc. believes that study of previous patterns can help investors and speculators prepare by giving them a guidance on what to expect this time around.
1/ We are in the early stages of a new #Bitcoin bull market. Let's explore what we know about such bull markets based on observations from the four major hype cycles that Bitcoin has already undergone. A thread ?
— Vijay Boyapati (@real_vijay) June 20, 2019
Boyapati first argues that the beginning phases of a bull market are slow. This is because there are various “weak hands” that were left holding Bitcoin below their initial entry point. Not amongst those that early Bitcoin proponent Trace Mayer calls a “holder of last resort”, many of these investors add to the selling pressure on the way up when price gets close to where they originally bought in. The software developer calls this an “overhang of potential supply”, and contributing to this phenomena are whales who didn’t manage to get out at the very top.
He goes on to state that if the price reaches a new all-time high, there are few people looking to ditch their positions in a small profit, loss, or break even:
“[In a bull market] bad news no longer matters and every dip is met with eager buyers who are looking for suitable entry points into #Bitcoin.”
Of course, it’s worth remembering that for most people Bitcoin is still down. It once sold for almost $20,000, now it sells for just over $9,000. They don’t even look at the slow accumulation that is going on now amongst institutions and savvy investors, let alone see it as an entry point.
Naturally, on top of the lack of supply overhang past $20,000, there will also be the media attention that sparks renewed interest comparable to the kind of mania witnessed in late 2017.
For Boyapati, such a media storm eventually sends the price parabolic in an unsustainable way and, if previous market cycles are anything to go by, the top could be far higher than most people think is possible:
“Very few people correctly anticipate how high the market will go and most will be shocked by the final peak. This is the bull market when #Bitcoin achieves geopolitical significance, so everyone will be watching. The feeding frenzy may be like nothing we’ve ever seen.”
Boyapati also gave some hints for those trying to time their exit from the market to ensure maximum profits. He argued that sloppiness in trading was a good indicator that a major reversal was coming, as well as “major price ‘gaps’, and exchanges pausing operations in response to overwhelming demand.
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