At long last, volatility has begun to die down in the Bitcoin (BTC) market. Aside from brief, relatively small flash crashes, cryptocurrencies have begun to show some stability once again. Bitcoin, for instance, has found support at $10,000 for the umpteenth time in months, having managed to trade above that level for nearly two weeks now.
Some have taken this stability as a sign that Bitcoin is poised to plunge. Peter Brandt, a prominent commodities trader that has delved into crypto, recently pointed out that Bitcoin has entered a descending triangle.
For those unaware, a descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern that is marked by lower highs and multiple bottoms at the same price level. Crypto traders have come to recognize this pattern as bearish, as it often results in Bitcoin falling through the bottom. Case in point, BTC, from the peak of $20,000 in December 2017 to August 2018, was trading in a massive descending triangle.
Bitcoin meets the definition of a descending triangle. Don't let newbie chartists tell you different. Right-angled triangles imply (but do not demand) a resolution thru the horizontal boundary. $BTC pic.twitter.com/DIW1BpMSCV
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 7, 2019
Yet, data is starting to show that Bitcoin may not be in a descending triangle. Rather, the cryptocurrency may be in a massive reaccumulation pattern that may last for months. Sorry not sorry, bulls n’ bears.
Bitcoin Price to Flatline
While traders in traditional markets hate volatility, crypto investors embrace it. Bitcoin’s history has been defined by massive blow-off tops and brutal bear depressions. But unfortunately for the volatility-loving traders in the crypto markets — that’s like 90% of you — analysts are starting to come to the conclusion that the Bitcoin price is going to flatline.
Prominent trader Josh Rager recently noted that in June, he “jokingly mentioned that closing [the weekly] above $11,700” would kickstart BTC’s rally to new all-time highs.
In that analysis, he drew a clear range for BTC, with $9,500 being the bottom and $11,700 being the top. So far, some two and a half months after he issued that analysis, Bitcoin has yet to break above or below that range implying consolidation and indecision in this market.
$BTC updated chart on trading view
Back in June, I jokingly mentioned that closing above $11,700 would be the launchpad level before new highs
Funny thing is, the weekly was held below that level and Bitcoin has been sideways since
Updated price action is in pink on the chart pic.twitter.com/tG9nqn6SBQ
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) September 10, 2019
While Bitcoin could break out of that eerily accurate range any day now, Philip Swift has argued that BTC is likely to “go sideways for a while”.
He noted that in the previous bull run, the historical volatility metric for Bitcoin always fell to a certain level before BTC embarked on its next leg higher. Bitcoin’s historical volatility is currently overextended from the precedent bottom, implying that the lull in the crypto market is not yet complete.
It's very possible that $BTC just goes sideways for a while now.
If that scenario plays out, then it is worth keeping an eye on Historical Volatility – currently dropping quickly.
It would present a lovely long position trade opportunity when it drops down to the green box. 😋 pic.twitter.com/Z1g7XLtAIE
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) September 9, 2019
And, as Nunya Bizniz has pointed out, Bitcoin consolidating and flatlining at the current level would fulfill BTC’s historical requirement of trading in a tight trading range prior to a block reward reduction.
Sideways into the halving would not be abnormal.
But would be torturous! pic.twitter.com/LQeLAJfqKl
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) September 9, 2019
Preparing To Run… Eventually
While Bitcoin has evidently entered an extended period of consolidation or accumulation, many are sure that is preparing to rocket higher in a few months’ time.
In fact, Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive that got into cryptocurrencies over five years ago, recently argued that it is “the last time to board the rocket ship” that is Bitcoin. In the chart attached to Pal’s below tweet, the analyst depicted that BTC is in a large wedge pattern, which Pal claims has a “high probability of success”.
I LOVE wedge patterns like this. They have a high probability of success.
Good luck. There is a "shit ton" going on in macro land. pic.twitter.com/tmNzxkcgTQ
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) September 1, 2019
While Pal didn’t divulge a price target, he has noted in previous interviews that with the current macroeconomic setup, he expects for Bitcoin to strongly outperform equities and other asset classes alongside gold, U.S. dollars, bonds, and diamonds.
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