Bitcoin price is one again trading in the low $10,000 range, following a weekend trading around mid-$10,000 and yet another failure to break out higher. As a result of the lack of a clear direction being chosen, volatility has dropped to the lowest point it has been in some time and is approaching lows from November 2018 and April 2019.
When volatility drops this low, just like it did during those two key dates, Bitcoin price makes a massive, powerful movement, and finally makes a decision on the trend ahead. Should something similar occur, a “massive” 25% or more move could be possible, according to one crypto analyst.
Bitcoin Price Volatility Reaches Levels Not Seen Since Nov 2018 or April 2019
Bitcoin and other crypto assets are both lauded and feared for their notorious volatility. For investors, the volatility can be difficult to stomach at times, as Bitcoin price can rise to $20,000 in months, only to fall back down to $3,000 retracing over 80% of the gains it saw.
Related Reading | Power Law: Tracking Bitcoin’s Growth to $100K and Beyond
But for crypto traders, volatility is why Bitcoin and the rest of the asset class make for such attractive financial markets. The massive price swings are ideal for traders who seek to buy low and sell high and can lead to a fortune being made trading on leverage using platforms like BitMEX or PrimeXBT that offer margin.
However, that lucrative volatility is currently non-existent, with Bitcoin price trading within a $200 range for much of the weekend. The volatility levels are reaching lows not witnessed since November 2018 or April 2019.
— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) September 16, 2019
In November 2018, Bitcoin price fell through what was thought to be unbreakable support at $6,000, dropping over $3,000 over the course of the following month before it bottomed in December.
In April 2019, Bitcoin price rose over $1,000 in the matter of an hour and kickstarted Bitcoin’s bull run and parabolic rally to the current trading range.
Yet another one of these massive, 25% or more Bitcoin price movements is expected, says one crypto analyst, that’ll put an end to the low volatility and help choose the trend for the days and possibly weeks and months ahead.
#bitcoin volatility is nearing the lows we saw in both November '18 and April '19
My expectation is a massive expansion (25% + move) within the next 45 days. pic.twitter.com/raSNtkRiBA
— Nick Cote (@mBTCPiz) September 16, 2019
A break up out of a multi-month triangle would have Bitcoin price retesting $14,000 where it was rejected back in June, and would likely have the momentum to break above it on its second attempt.
Related Reading | Poll: More Than Half of Bitcoin Investors Expect Triangle Breakout
However, should Bitcoin price break down instead, the target would be in the $7,000 range, with a possibility of dipping under $7,000 to touch previous bear market support, confirming it as such. Alternatively, because there are so many buyers expected at $8,500 waiting to buy the dip, Bitcoin price may never reach those lower targets and could be propelled right back up to test the high end of the range.
Regardless, the days ahead are critical for Bitcoin price and should result in a clear trend direction and a return of volatility.