Bitcoin (BTC) bulls took in a massive breath of fresh air on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) revealed that it would be cutting its policy interest rate… again. They say that the direction in which the macroeconomic backdrop is heading will only be bullish for an asset like BTC, which is non-sovereign, decentralized, and scarce.
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Federal Reserve Cuts Two Times in a Row
While Bitcoin was created to be an alternative to the fiat system, investors in the industry have become enthralled with the direction that the old guard is taking.
The Fed has caved and has guaranteed bitcoin's bull run well into 2020. pic.twitter.com/Z5yZRY1VpB
— Joe McCann (@joemccann) August 27, 2019
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the branch of the Fed that determines in which direction interest rates head, issued its September decision. To the surprise of absolutely no one — the world’s central banks have all been easing, driving rates negative in some places — the American monetary authority cut rates.
The target interest rate fell by 25 basis points (0.25%), marking the second rate cut after the one in August. The market priced this in, expecting for the Fed to follow in the footsteps of other central bankers, presumably due to fears of a potential recession.
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While this in and of itself was seen by cryptocurrency investors as “bullish for Bitcoin”, the narrative developed further right after the announcement.
In the wake of Chairman Jerome Powell’s announcement that a rate cut took place, President Donald Trump was quick to criticize the independent entity.
The Leader of the Free World accused Powell & Co. of “failing”, claiming that the Fed didn’t have the “guts” to do… something. This something, as interpreted by libertarian Peter Schiff and others on Twitter, was the fact that the Federal Reserve didn’t cut rates enough and didn’t activate Quantitative Easing (QE) 4.
In other words, Trump was critical of the Fed’s decision not to print an incessant amount of money to stave off a recession, drive up economic numbers ahead of the election cycle, and maintain steady growth in the American equities market.
Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No “guts,” no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 18, 2019
Bitcoin proponents saw this bash, which made no mention of cryptocurrency, as decidedly bullish for BTC.
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Analysts Expect Bitcoin Price Boom
Trump has no direct effect on the Federal Reserve’s decisions, with the FOMC being comprised of independent economists that have the sole goals of lower unemployment and aiding economic growth.
But, the world, as analyst Alex Kruger recently wrote in an extensive Twitter thread on fiscal & monetary policy, is trending towards one which sees the “end of independent central banks and increased fiscal profigacy”.
If Trump was to somehow enact the monetary policies he currently wants, it would only increase the need for alternative, independent, non-correlated, and scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Central banks are mostly independent to minimize interference from elected politicians for short-term gain. Monetary policy is thus often used to balance fiscal policy.
Yet it seems the world is moving towards the end of independent central banks and increased fiscal profligacy.
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) August 18, 2019
While this tweet thread from Travis Kling is rather dated — from January 30th, 2019, in fact — it does well to explain why a world with extremely low interest rates and QE will benefit Bitcoin.
As the Ikigai CIO wrote, QE and extremely low/negative interest rates, which many say amount to currency devaluations, are “the largest monetary and fiscal policy experiment in human history”, an experiment that is much like a “drug” for risk assets.
The use of this “drug” increases money supply and perpetuates asset inflation, which should drive up the value of provable scarce assets like Bitcoin in the years to come.
The Fed just capitulated to the market and Trump's tweets.
The 2019 U.S. budget deficit is $1 trillion.
If you were writing the script for a non-sovereign, hardcapped supply, digital form of money to gain mass adoption, this is how you would write it.https://t.co/3nT15fjnVY
— Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling) January 31, 2019
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