Bitcoin Price: Reclaiming Important Moving Average Could Lead to Retest of Highs

Tony "The Bull" Severino

5 years ago

3 mins read

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Since the start of the week, Bitcoin price has rallied from a retest of lows around $7,700 to $8,700 – gaining over $1,000 in value during the short timeframe.

The rise in Bitcoin price was also yet another retest of the asset’s 200-day moving average, and what happens from here could determine the trend ahead. Will Bitcoin return to its bull market, or will the leading cryptocurrency by market cap fall further to find new lows, putting any chance at a bull market in jeopardy?

Bitcoin Price Retests Recently Lost 200-Day Moving Average

Throughout the entire 2016-2017 bull run, Bitcoin price was supported by the 200-day moving average and didn’t close a candle below it. It was among the few indicators giving crypto investors hope that the recent triangle formation would break upward, causing Bitcoin to continue on its bullish rally.

But the recent triangle formation broke down instead, and much to the fears of bullish crypto traders, the 200-day moving average was broken below, with many consecutive candle closes below it. Bitcoin price made a pair of reattempts to get through it but was ultimately rejected back down to a local low around $7,700.

After the most recent test of that low, Bitcoin price rocketed upward nearly $1,000 in a matter of a few days and is making its best attempt yet at breaking back above the 200-day moving average, and if it is able to close back above it, the correction may already be over.

https://twitter.com/walter_wyckoff/status/1181989252500000769

However, if Bitcoin cannot break above the 200-day moving average, and is rejected, one crypto analyst jokingly suggests that ramen noodles – a mainstay of low-income college students – will be on the menu for some time to come.

The 50-Day Moving Average And Potential Death Cross Approaches

If Bitcoin can indeed get through, it’ll have the 50-day moving average as the next obstacle it faces. The other notable moving average often used by crypto analysts, is currently resting at about $9,500 – a range that was heavily defended by bulls before the breakdown occurred.

But if Bitcoin price is rejected by the 200-day moving average, the 50-day moving average will begin to fall further, and draw closer and closer to making a death cross – an occurrence where a short-term moving average falls below a long-term moving average, typically signaling the asset is a sell.

The last time the death cross occurred, was back in April 2018, and it resulted in over a year of a bear market before it crossed back up – making a golden cross – in April 2019 at the start of the parabolic rally.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.