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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Falls 20% Below Stock-To-Flow Forecast

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
2 mins read
bitcoin price crypto stock to flow model

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Because Bitcoin is a new, emerging technology unlike anything before it, it is difficult to give the speculative asset a meaningful value, and instead, market dynamics like supply and demand take over.

One attempt to assign a fair market value to Bitcoin has been done through a highly-cited stock-to-flow model. However, Bitcoin price is now trading between 15 and 20 percent below the projected stock-to-flow value of the asset, suggesting that the asset is currently undervalued and that it is “time to pay attention.”

Time to Buy BTC? Bitcoin Falls 20% Below Stock-to-Flow

Bitcoin price throughout 2019 had been following along the highly-cited stock-to-flow model, popularized by crypto analyst Plan B. The model has been referred to on CNBC Fast Money a number of times, and has been considered among the first accurate way of providing a meaningful measure of Bitcoin’s value based on its supply.

Related Reading | Legendary Bitcoin Short Seller Says To Watch For Base To Form Before Buying

According to the stock-to-flow model, Bitcoin should be on track to reach roughly $55,000 per BTC by its halving this coming May 2020. Starting in 2019, Bitcoin appeared to be well on its way to such figures, rallying over 350% from trough to peak, before it was rejected at $14,000.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $7,000 – roughly 50% of the peak value it reached in 2019, but also a far cry away from the $55,000 it is projected to reach this May – a mere six months away at this point.

Bitcoin's Stock to flow model.

Currently below s/f by 15-20%

Its not a race but it if you bullieve in the narrative, its time to pay attention. $btc pic.twitter.com/mfZKXpYY0A

— filbfilb (@filbfilb) November 27, 2019

Based on the model, one analyst points out that Bitcoin is now trading between 15 and 20% below the projected price of the model, and suggests it is now time to pay attention to leading cryptocurrency by market cap, as it may return on its bull run and continue along its path to $55,000 by halving.

Reaching $55,000 from current prices would represent an over 630% gain. Such gains are impossible in the majority of asset types, but this is Bitcoin we’re talking about, and anything is possible. The crypto asset in just three months from April to June went from $4,000 to $14,000, resulting in an over 300% gain. If it achieved half of that gain in just 3 months, a full 600% gain in six months isn’t out of the question.

Related Reading | November Monthly Bitcoin Close Critical For Bull Market

Reaching such a number would likely cause extreme FOMO, taking the asset to the lofty prices that some investors firmly believe Bitcoin will someday reach – prices of as much as $100,000 to $1 million per BTC. But first, Bitcoin needs to breach $14,000, then take out its former all-time high at $20,000 – two important feats – before a run at $55,000 is possible.

At the very least, if the stock-to-flow model is at all accurate, buying Bitcoin now could be among the most rewarding investments of a lifetime.

Featured image from Shutterstock
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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