Markets are still reeling from the impact of the pandemic and the resulting Black Thursday selloff. However, one fund manager says the powerful shakeout demonstrated the strong will of Bitcoin investors.
If that violent selloff driven by panic and fear didn’t cause holders to sell, what might it take?
Remembering The Most Violent Shakeout In Crypto History
At the start of 2020, Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market went on a tear. Bitcoin had exploded out of consolidation from the previous winter, and the decentralized finance movement brought renewed interest to the space.
Ethereum closed a record seven weeks bullish in a row, while Bitcoin retested and even held above $10,000. Altcoins like Chainlink set a new all-time high. Meanwhile, the stock market was also setting records of its own.
All of this came to a screeching halt, and a historic crash followed once the world learned of the gravity of the pandemic. The stock market went from setting record highs, to closing the worst quarterly loss in history.
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Bitcoin, which was poised to finally break out into a new bull run, experienced a severe drop of over 50% in 48 hours. Days prior, Bitcoin was trading above $10,000. By the time the dust settled, the cryptocurrency traded below $4,000 briefly before a bounce occurred.
A cascade of liquidations of high leverage traders on the margin trading platform BitMEX further fueled the violent drop. The entire crypto industry watched in shock, fearing that Bitcoin may actually hit zero as pundits and naysayers had claimed.
Turning off BitMEX saved the day, and the asset has been on a steady, V-shaped recovery since. But the memory of that day will always stand out to any market participants that lived through it.
If Black Thursday Didn’t Break Bitcoin Holders, What Will It Take?
Clearly, it took plenty of selling to drive prices that low. However, wallets holding BTC are rising to the highest levels ever.
Data shows that crypto investors holding for a year or more has reached a new all-time high of 62%. The last time such levels were achieved, was prior to the greatest bull run in crypto history.
Related Reading | The Amount of Bitcoin That Hasn’t Moved In a Year Hits an All-Time High
The steady increase in the metric has prompted a well-known crypto fund manager to pose a “serious question.” They ask, “if a round trip to $4,000 and back in March” did nothing to break the strong hands of crypto holders, then “what will?”
Serious question (for the bears, naysayers, etc.)…
… if a round trip to $4000 and back in March did nothing to trigger HODL'er start selling, what will? https://t.co/JFakZ6rmq5
— Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) June 30, 2020
The fund manager may be right. After withstanding such a sharp decline in a single day, there may not be anything that could cause crypto holders to fold.
As far as what may do so, the clear answer is a lower low. The current $3,200 bottom has been untested since early 2019. Although the Black Thursday selloff came close to returning to that level, it fell short, stopping at $3,800.
Bitcoin returning to $3,200, or possibly breaking below that number, would strike fear into the hearts of any crypto investors – new or old.
Hyperwave theory and other price action concepts suggest Bitcoin needs to retest its former top at just above $1,000 in order to have bottomed. There is untested support in this area, making it a prime target for a retest.
Reaching any of these zones could be the only thing to cause a shakeout at this point. But that also may never happen, and those holding now will be handsomely rewarded.