What Happens Next? Bitcoin Range Falls To Tightest Point In History

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:05 pm

3 mins read

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2020 has been a brutal year on all accounts, topped off by the most boring sideways action in Bitcoin yet.

In fact, this truly is the most stagnant range in the history of the first-ever cryptocurrency, according to a range-measuring technical indicator.

Bitcoin True Range Reaches Record-Setting Low

Bitcoin price is trading at roughly $9,200. It’s been trading within just a few percent from that price for the last few months.

Any attempts to push prices lower results in dip buyers stepping in and wicks left to the downside. All rallies to above $10,000 however are swatted down by bears back into the range.

Nothing thus far has been able to break it, yet nearly every crypto analyst and trader is expecting an enormous move when the range does finally give.

An indicator measuring the True Range percentage of BTCUSD price action has now fallen to the lowest point in the asset’s just over decade long history.

 Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index True Range % | Source: TradingView

Bitazu Capital founding partner Mohit Sorout shared the chart via Twitter highlighting the extreme reading on the indicator. Nearly every fall to this low of a measurement has resulted in a powerful movement afterward. And if Bitcoin price is at the lowest True Range in history, could we soon see the largest price movement ever?

Bollinger Bands Point To Sizable Move When Tight Range Finally Breaks

Another tool underscoring that the sideways price action has reached record lows in volatility is the Bollinger Bands technical analysis indicator.

The indicator consists of a simple moving average and two standard deviations that act as the upper and lower “bands.”

These bands widen and contract depending on volatility and corresponding price action. When the Bollinger Bands “squeeze” and tighten, an explosive move always follows.

The Bollinger Bands have now reached their tightest point since the November 2018 drop taking Bitcoin to its bear market bottom at $3200.

Bitcoin BTCUSD Bitstamp Bollinger Bands Daily | Source: TradingView

Ahead of the over 50% drop, a similar length sideways trading range took place, but the asset ultimately couldn’t hold repeatedly tested support. The support level at $6,000 held several times prior to the breakdown, but pent up momentum during sideways action once released provided enough strength for the collapse.

This time around, however, it’s resistance at $10,000 that has repeatedly been tested. Could this time send BTCUSD flying high, perhaps retesting $14,000 where the last major rejection took place?

If Bitcoin can break above that level, a retest of the cryptocurrency’s all-time high is very likely. However, if Bitcoin breaks down from here, a lower low may be possible.

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

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Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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