Why Data Could Suggest Bitcoin Boredom Will Last Another Three Months

Tony "The Bull" Severino

4 years ago

3 mins read

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Crypto investors and traders bored and frustrated with the sideways price action in Bitcoin should prepare themselves for the worst-case scenario. The worst-case and max pain scenario, in this case, isn’t a breakout or breakdown, it’s more sideways.

According to past cycle data, this tight trading range could potentially last another three months before sparks fly. And before it happens, the trading range could get even smaller.

Cryptocurrency Market Boredom Leads to Confusion, Uncertainty

Bitcoin price has reached the tightest range in the asset’s over decade long history. Volatility is at record lows.

At this point, and after nearly three full months of sideways price action, crypto market participants would gladly take either direction.

A breakout may be starting following an early morning surge supported by a stock market pump and rally in gold. Any break of the current tight range would likely lead to a collective sigh of relief across the crypto market.

Boredom in Bitcoin has led crypto investors to altcoins, but a reversal in BTC dominance has the market confused yet again.

All the fear, uncertainty, and doubt could prevent today’s potential breakout from confirming with volume, causing Bitcoin to fail at leaving the trading range behind.

Past data shows that this type of non-existent trend could continue for another three months, despite spending almost all of Q2 trading inside the same range.

Bitcoin Sideways May Extend Another Three Months, According to Past Cycle Data

According to a new report from Arcane Research, Bitcoin’s trading range is now the tightest in history.

And although the asset has reached such a tight range, past data implies that the sideways price action could remain for another quarter into 2020.

The sideways price action is now 84 days in – or less than a week from a full 90 days. During the previous bear to bull market cycle, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap traded within a sideways range for almost a full six months.

After first trading within a 27% range, the range tightened further to just 11%. Bitcoin price was first trading within a 25% range this time around, but has since fallen to the tightest range ever.

Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index Daily | Source: TradingView

If the first-ever cryptocurrency follows a similar path as the last cycle, BTCUSD may trade even tighter in a sideways range for another three months.

The range first tightened further at 90 days in, just about where Bitcoin is now in this cycle. Then it spent another 90 days within just about a ten percent range.

Taking the price action of the last cycle and superimposing it over the current price action, potentially provides a look at what to expect in the months ahead.

The explosive move up eventually arrived, after a full 180 days and nearly six months of sideways. A similar timeframe would push off a major breakout in BTCUSD until Q4 2020, around the end of October.

Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index Daily | Source: TradingView

The potential fractal would send Bitcoin to $17,000, where the first higher low formed and started the bear market. This level could be the final resistance before the crypto asset retests its former all-time high.

But before this happens, the max pain scenario of another three months of sideways could keep the crypto asset bay a while longer.

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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