The cumulative sum in dormant bitcoin addresses surpassed 12.58 million BTC, worth just about $100 billion at current price. It indicates most investors are holding strong despite volatility in the market.
It also demonstrates that amidst one of the steepest falls in recent history from $13,900 to $6,410, the majority of investors were holding onto bitcoin, as pointed out by a researcher known as Rhythm.
Its an optimistic macro indicator for bitcoin
In the short-term, the price movement of bitcoin is likely to be swayed by trends in the margin trading market through platforms like BitMEX and Binance Futures.
Often times, long or short squeezes trigger a significant price movement to either the downside or the upside, creating large volatility in the crypto market.
In the long-term, however, macro and fundamental factors will determine the pathway of bitcoin. Fundamentals for the dominant cryptocurency are considered to be metrics such as hashrate, user activity, and declining supply or scarcity.
The lack of outflow from most BTC addresses adds to the optimistic macro outlook on bitcoin. It specifically demonstrates that at least more than half of all BTC holders are investing with a long-term investment thesis.
The long-term investment thesis for BTC
In his famous essay entitled “The case for a small allocation to Bitcoin,” Xapo CEO Wences Casares said in March 2019 that he believes BTC could be worth as much as $1 million in the next decade.
“My preferred way of guessing how the price of Bitcoin may evolve is much more prosaic. I have noticed over time that the price of Bitcoin fluctuates around ~ $7,000 x how many people own bitcoins. So if that constant maintains and if 3 billion people ever own Bitcoin it would be worth ~ $21 trillion (~ $7,000 x 3 billion) or $1 million per Bitcoin,” he wrote.
Bitcoin would have to see an exponential increase in adoption over the next several years and show a similar trend to gold in evolving into a proper store of value.
The sheer number of investors holding BTC through wild volatility and significant corrections with a long-term investment thesis suggest that most investors believe it is possible for BTC to evolve into a major asset in the years to come.
For that to happen, the basics and the fundamentals have to support both BTC and the rest of the asset class in digital currencies.
The continuous efforts of companies to build custodians, regulated platforms to trade, provide higher liquidity, and overall safer environments to invest in the cryptocurrency are likely to act as a driving factor of bitcoin.