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Bitcoin Could Narrowly Avoid a Downside Thrust if it Closes Above 100 SMA

Aayush Jindal by Aayush Jindal
3 years ago
in Bitcoin, Technical analysis
Reading Time: 2 mins read

Bitcoin is declining steadily and trading below $9,400 against the US Dollar. BTC could decline sharply below $9,250 if it fails to reclaim the 100 hourly simple moving average.

  • Bitcoin is slowly moving lower and now trading well below the $9,500 pivot level.
  • The price is showing a few bearish signs below $9,400 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a crucial declining channel or a bullish flag pattern forming with resistance near $9,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could decline sharply below $9,250 if there is no close above the channel resistance.

Bitcoin Price Sliding Towards $9,250

After forming a short-term top near the $9,500 level, bitcoin price started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. BTC broke the key $9,500 support and pivot zone to start a downside correction.

It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $8,907 low to $9,600 swing high. The bears were able to push the price below the $9,400 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

It seems like there is a crucial declining channel or a bullish flag pattern forming with resistance near $9,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the downside, the first key support is seen near the $9,250 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $8,907 low to $9,600 swing high.

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin price chart: Source: TradingView.com

Bitcoin is clearly struggling to clear the channel resistance and the 100 hourly SMA to resume its upside above $9,500. Therefore, there is a risk of more losses below the $9,250 support level.

The next major support is near the $9,140 level, below which the price will most likely continue lower towards the $9,000 support level in the near term.

Upside Break in BTC?

If bitcoin manages to clear the channel resistance at $9,400 and the 100 hourly SMA, the bulls are likely to gain strength. The first key resistance is near the $9,500 level, above which the price could revisit the $9,600 swing high.

Any further gains could open the doors for a larger upward move towards the main $10,000 resistance (as discussed using the daily chart).

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well below the 50 level, with a bearish angle.

Major Support Levels – $9,250 followed by $9,080.

Major Resistance Levels – $9,400, $9,500 and $9,800.

Tags: bitcoinbtcusdBTCUSDTxbtusd
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Aayush Jindal

Aayush Jindal

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies, and Financial Market Strategist. He specializes in market strategies and technical analysis and has spent over 15 years as a financial markets contributor and observer. He also founded an IT company and works rigorously in providing high-quality software services. Aayush possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin, and Ethereum markets. Follow him on Twitter @AayushJs.

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