On the 4-hour time frame of BTC/USD from Bitstamp, it can be seen that price is forming a huge reversal pattern and may be due for more losses. A head and shoulders formation has been completed, with bitcoin price testing the neckline of the pattern.
Technical indicators on the same chart seem to favor a downside break, even as bitcoin price is currently consolidating above the neckline support. A break below the $235 level could mean a drop all the way down to $150, which would be roughly the same height as the pattern.
- Stochastic is on middle ground but is pointing lower, reflecting a buildup in selling pressure.
- If the oscillator climbs higher, price could make a retracement but still carry on with its strong downtrend.
- The shorter-term EMA is treading below the longer-term EMA, confirming that sellers are in control of bitcoin price action at the moment.
- If the moving averages edge further apart, bearish momentum could pick up and lead to a strong downside break from the neckline, which might draw more sellers in.
- If support around $235 holds, bitcoin price could bounce back to the near-term resistance at $250.
Scrolling further back on the 4-hour chart shows that there is an area of interest around the $200 level, which might limit the cryptocurrency’s losses. Updates on the BitLicense framework to be implemented soon by the U.S. government appear to be weighing on bitcoin price, as this could restrict growth and innovation in the industry.
On longer-term time frames, bitcoin seems to have completed a major correction and is on the impulse wave lower, confirming that sellers are piling on their short positions for the cryptocurrency. Short-term technical analysis shows that price is testing the lower part of the range and may be due for a quick bounce before breaking lower, depending on how this week’s news reports play out.