During the April 22nd session, bitcoin uncoiled upwards. The 1H chart shows not only a breakout from volatility, but also above consolidation resistance near 230. As the session wound down, the rally stalled around 239 at which point price stalled and formed a bearish divergence with the RSI. (When price makes a higher high and the RSI a lower high).
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 1H Chart April 23
(click to enlarge)
After finding resistance at 239 along with the bearish divergence, price retreated as the April 23rd global session began. The pullback has been weak so far, holding around 233. The technical conditions in the 1H chart are still bullish.
1) The 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) are sloping up and in bullish alignment.
2) Price is still above these moving averages.
3) The RSI has tagged above 70, even 80, and so far has held above 40 after a pullback.
A break above 235 could be a sign of bullish continuation back to test the 239-240 area. If the pullback extends lower, we should expect support above 228. Now, if price falls below 225, then, we should consider the possibility that bitcoin is still bearish.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H Chart April 23
(click to enlarge)
When we look at the 4H chart, we see a bearish market is has found a price bottom and is at least in a bullish correction if not a reversal. There was also a bearish divergence between price and the RSI in the 4H chart.
It should also be noted that a break below 225 would also break below the 50-period SMA and the apex of a previous triangle consolidation. This is another reason to shift back to the bearish outlook if price falls below 225.
Now to the upside we can see that price is essentially respected the resistance around 240, which involves the 200-period SMA, a falling trendline and a previously common support. Holding below these resistance factors would keep btcusd in a bearish mode.
A break above 245 on the other hand, would clear these resistance factors and further strengthen the bullish reversal scenario.
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