Yesterday, we noted that bitcoin started to coil within a consolidation range between roughly 236 and 256 as we can see in the 1H chart.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 1H Chart 2/4/2015
(click to enlarge)
During the first session of April, btcusd first extended a dip that cracked 240, but rebounded quickly back above the session high. More, importantly, the technical picture is shifting from neutral-bearish, to neutral in the near-term (1H chart).
1) BTCUSD is now crossing above the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs, which shows at least a loss of the prevailing bearish bias.
2) The RSI has pushed above the 60 level, which shows loss of the prevailing bearish momentum, again in the near-term.
While the market is neutral in the short-term it could be bullish in the near-term. This outlook however should be limited first to 256. We can expect some resistance there, but here’s the thing. The fact that today’s dip failed to reach the lows around 236 suggests that the bulls are beginning to gain the upperhand in the very short-term. This makes the 256 handle vulnerable. From a trader’s perspective, this means, be careful trying to fade bitcoin around 256. We might expect a near-term downswing to 245, but below that would be an aggressive outlook.
Instead, the more favorable scenario to me would be a break above 256 by the end of this week. Then, if there is a pullback, we should watch for support aroudn 245-250. Now, the range of the most recent consolidation range (256-236) is 20. Thus a conventional bullish breakout projection targets 256+20 = 276.
Bitcoin 4H chart 2/4/2015
(click to enlarge)
The 4H chart tells us to be conservative for the bullish outlook as well, mainly because the prevailing trend since early-mid-March is bearish. If there is a bullish breakout from the current range, we should start looking for resistance around 270, where we see the 200-period SMA, a falling trendline, and a previous resistance pivot from last week.
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