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bitcoin crash 50 70
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How Bitcoin Price Could Shed 50 To 70% If Momentum Turns Down

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
1 year ago
in BTC
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Bitcoin price is down nearly 10% from recent highs set earlier this month, but the underlying strength of the price action is beginning to fade ever so slightly.

The weekly MACD is also turning , potentially ready to cross over for the first time in months. Here’s how such a bearish crossover could result in as much as a 50 to 70% correction in the leading cryptocurrency by market cap.

Is The Bitcoin Bull Market Coming To A Conclusion Soon?

Bitcoin by most standards has been in uptrend for a full year now, dating back to Black Thursday in March 2020. The trend began to turn slightly up even before then, dating back to the bottom of the bear market in 2018.

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From that bottom, the top cryptocurrency rocketed from lows but momentum finally ran out before new highs were reached. This last push, was successful in breaking through former resistance and setting a new all-time high three times the last cycle’s peak.

Related Reading | This Bitcoin Metric Says The Bull Market Might Soon Be Over

However, things could be once again turning down, much like they did in 2019. Or worse yet, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence on weekly timeframes, this could be the end of the bull market for some time.

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At the very least, data shows that if a bearish crossover happens – something that Bitcoin is just inches away from – a between 50 to 70% correction typically follows.

bitcoin btc whales

Momentum is turning down, and past instances show steep corrections | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

What Momentum Says About The Current Cryptocurrency Market Cycle

Looking at the above chart, the correlation between the logarithmic version of the MACD and past peaks are undeniable. When the MACD crosses bearish on weekly timeframes, it has been a reliable signal the top is in.

The one catch, is that the reading must be above 0.25 to be effective in spotting the top. It’s also worth noting, that each top actually happened before the bearish crossover, which is why the MACD has a notorious reputation as a lagging indicator.

lmacd bitcoin

A more detailed look at the LMACD reveals a lot about price action | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Removing price action, and focusing on the details of the LMACD alone, tells an in-depth story about price action over the last several years.

Any red arrows marked a medium-to-long-term top. Each were above the key level of 0.25, and three out of four are brushing up a descending trendline, which the LMACD is currently touching now. Two out of those three were tops, but there’s no telling if the third time is the charm.

Arrows marked in orange also show yet another 50 to 70% collapse after the original 50 to 70% crash has concluded, but those were sweeps of bear market lows. Blue arrows are a lot more confusing, resulting in bearish crossovers and selloffs, but also an immediate resumption of the bull trend.

Related Reading | Following Bitcoin “Reset,” It’s “Off To The Races Again”

Which is what brings Bitcoin to an interest inflection point currently. The LMACD is, as mentioned, touching a trendline dating back nearly a decade worth of bull market tops, adding credence to any theories that the peak of this cycle could be in already.

But its worth mentioning also, that due to the several blue arrows, and the fact that Bitcoin already broke through one descending trendline (red dashed line) could suggest that this current run is going to break more than just price records.

Finally, although a top could be in for now, there’s no ruling out a 2013-like scenario where there were two distinct peaks only seven months apart. That would imply that any bearish crossover, would ultimately turn back up similar to 2017, but bring with it another peak just like 2013.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinbtcbtcusdBTCUSDTcryptoxbtxbtusd
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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