A Crypto Christmas Miracle? Bitcoin Signal Suggests A Bottom Is Near

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

4 mins read

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During no other time of the year are humans more open to the idea of miracles than now. But what about a crypto Christmas miracle for Bitcoin?

Rather than the miracle being the premise for a holiday flick, it is possible that the appearance of a backtestable technical signal puts in a miracle-esque bottom for the cryptocurrency market.

More Credence For A Santa Claus Rally In Crypto

Dozens of Hallmark-style holiday movies include the world “miracle” in their title. The idea that Santa Claus could hit the homes of children across the entire globe in one night demonstrates the type of hopeful sentiment that can build this time of year.

Related Reading | Could Bitcoin Benefit From A Santa Claus Rally?

Across the cryptocurrency market, investors got the equivalent of coal for Christmas – that is unless a miracle happens. That miracle has a higher than average probability of happening this holiday, according to the Fisher Transform technical indicator on BTCUSD 3-day timeframes.

This technical indicator has only shown such an extreme deviation two other times throughout its history – and when you read at what prices this signal triggered at previously, you won’t help but become more hopeful for a Santa Claus rally over the next several days.

Could a Christmas miracle make investors merry? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The Most Extreme Bitcoin Bottom Signal Is Back For Christmas

The Fisher Transform is a technical indicator that was created by John F. Ehlers and, according to Investopedia, “converts prices into a Gaussian normal distribution.” Doing so makes spotting turning points a lot easier. Both extreme readings in standard deviation and the signal itself changing direction present a higher than normal probability point of reversal.

When it comes to objective technical analysis, few technical indicators supply such regularly backtestable results as the Fisher Transform. The version of the Fisher Transform pictured above and below is a custom tool designed by Moe_mentum dubbed the iFish Smooth & Divergence, available on a two-week trial basis or $525 for lifetime use.

Could this signal be another gift for Bitcoin holders? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

On 3-day BTCUSD charts, the Fisher Transform is showing a potential reversal through turning around at the -2.0 deviation – a point of extremes reached only two other times prior.

The first of the two instances was in October 2011 when Bitcoin was trading at around two bucks per coin. The second was at the bear market bottom in December 2018. Now, some three years later, the extreme level has been reached again, just as the indicator starts turning around.

The Fisher Transform is an unbounded indicator, meaning that it could very well reverse again and continue to a deeper deviation and extreme. However, doing so would only further increase the likelihood of a reversal further. This makes the Fisher Transform a helpful tool for those who trade using a “mean reversion strategy” and attempt to profit from when prices move to unusual extremes.

Bitcoin price could still make another low while the Fisher Transform fails to do so. At that point, a bullish divergence would be possible and another buy signal potentially generated – again improving the chances of a positive outcome.

Investopedia warns that the potentially lagging indicator could have several limitations. For example, “asset prices are not normally distributed, therefore attempts to normalize prices could be inherently flawed and may not produce reliable signals.”

However, the Fisher Transform remains among the most statistically reliable through backtesting of data, especially when combined with other tools for confirmation. And these statistics show a Christmas crypto miracle could be on the way.

#Bitcoin per D3 — IFS reading one of the historical lows at ( OS) region
backtest shows that market was bottomed

D3 at( -2 deviation ) was 👇
-> October 2011 @ $2.15
-> 15 Dec 2018 @ $3135https://t.co/125TAgbVlu

— Moe (@Moe_mentum_) December 23, 2021

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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