$140K Or Bust? Simulation Says Bitcoin’s Odds Are Now 50-50

Christian Encila

3 hours ago

3 mins read

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According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of topping $140,000 before the month ends. He posted that likelihood on X and backed it with simulation work that uses a decade of price moves to map likely outcomes.

Simulation Based On Historical Data

Peterson said the model runs hundreds of simulations using daily Bitcoin prices going back to 2015. Based on those runs, he put the chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%.

He also gave a 43% probability that the price will end the month below $136k. At the time he spoke, Bitcoin was trading at $121,200. That means a rise of about 11% would be needed to reach $140,000 from the current level.

Half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation.
There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025

Bitcoin set a fresh all-time high of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled off. The coin began October at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced gains.

According to data, October has been the second-best month on average since 2013, with typical gains of 20%. Reports have disclosed that November is the strongest month historically, averaging 46% gains since 2013.

No Human Emotion

Peterson described his forecast as driven by data rather than human emotion. He said each projection follows price changes that mirror Bitcoin’s past volatility and rhythm.

That approach aims to remove bias from short-term sentiment. Still, there are limits to what historical simulations can show.

Bitcoin has sometimes moved in ways that did not match past patterns. Market reactions, policy moves, and other forces can push prices off the script that history suggests.

BTCUSD trading at $121,296 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

Market Sentiment Remains Bullish

Other analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the recent high. One analyst said the market was retesting prior highs and could move higher.

Another wrote that pressure was building for further gains. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by traders and funds.

Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate.

If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it.

I explained on @SquawkCNBC this morning why so many investors are not producing the returns they think they are. pic.twitter.com/re98rjCDua

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 7, 2025

Macro Notes From A Prominent Investor

Reports have also carried comments from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can continue if governments and central banks keep printing money.

JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin will never stop going up.

“They will never stop printing money.” pic.twitter.com/qeWJnTsIb3

— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025

His view links monetary policy to Bitcoin demand, and it is widely shared among supporters who see the asset as a hedge.

Featured image from Verdict, chart from TradingView

Christian Encila

They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that's not just a metaphor, it's a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

Christian's journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling - right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he's one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian's all work and no play? Not a chance! When he's not at his computer, you'll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian's got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here's the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day - and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors - and bosses - he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

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