$28,100 Next Level To Break For Bitcoin, Here’s Why

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data suggests the $28,100 level could be the next major resistance to break for Bitcoin if history is anything to go by.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Is Valued At $28,100 Currently

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC price has recently neared the short-term holders’ realized price. The “realized price” is a metric that basically represents the cost basis (that is, the buying price) of the average investor in the Bitcoin market.

When the spot price of the asset dips below this indicator, the majority of the holders go underwater, while breaks above the level naturally result in the average investor moving into a state of profit.

In the context of the current discussion, the realized price for only a segment of the cryptocurrency’s user base is of interest; namely, the “short-term holders” (STHs).

The STHs include all investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago. This cohort is one of the two main groups in the BTC market; the other one being the “long-term holders” (LTHs).

The STHs are generally the more fickle investors, who easily react to changes in the wider market (like crashes or rallies), while the LTHs tend to stay silent regardless of the wider sentiment.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price for both of these groups over the last few years:

The asset's price seems to have come near the indicator's value in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the BTC spot price has surged closer to the STH realized price with the cryptocurrency’s latest rally following the news of the Grayscale victory.

Historically, the retests of this level have been very often significant for the cryptocurrency, as they have generally set the tone for what trend the asset could follow in the near future.

During bullish periods, the cost basis of the STHs usually provides support to the price, while the coin may encounter resistance at the line during bearish regimes.

This pattern can also be seen working in action during this year’s rally, as Bitcoin found support at the line during the retests in both March and June. With the recent crash, however, Bitcoin finally plunged under the level.

It’s possible that a return toward a bear market has now occurred because of this failed retest. Currently, the Bitcoin STH realized price is valued at about $28,100, which is actually the highest BTC has gone during the latest surge.

Since Bitcoin has observed a pullback, it’s possible that it’s because of the resistance that the STH cost basis provided. If BTC continues to surge in the coming days, another retest of this level might be one to watch for, as a rejection might confirm a bearish transition. A successful break, however, could suggest that the bullish momentum isn’t dead just yet.

BTC Price

Following the latest surge, Bitcoin is now trading around the $27,400 mark, with investors being in 6% profits over the past week.

BTC has observed a sharp surge recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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