Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run: MVRV Metric Hints At $95K To $120K Target

Samuel Edyme

8 months ago

3 mins read

Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run: MVRV Metric Hints at $95K to $120K Target

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The Bitcoin price action has sparked renewed interest among analysts and investors as the cryptocurrency approaches a major event (the US election) later in November.

A CryptoQuant analyst known as CoinLupin recently provided an analysis on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, focusing on Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric often used to gauge Bitcoin’s value compared to its on-chain fundamentals.

With macroeconomic factors creating uncertainty in the crypto markets, CoinLupin shared insights on the significance of MVRV for evaluating Bitcoin’s current market position.

MVRV And Historical Cycle Peaks

The MVRV ratio, currently around 2, indicates that Bitcoin’s market value is approximately double its on-chain realized value, reflecting the average price paid by all asset holders.

CoinLupin explained that the key lies in observing trend changes within the MVRV ratio over time rather than fixating on this absolute value.

Using the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV along with the 4-year average—a common reflection of Bitcoin’s cyclical trends—the analyst noted that the MVRV ratio is currently above the long-term average and recently exceeded its 365-day moving average.

According to CoinLupin, this suggests that Bitcoin’s upward trend remains intact. CoinLupin elaborated on the potential significance of Bitcoin’s MVRV levels, particularly regarding historical cycle peaks.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin has typically peaked when the MVRV ratio is between 3 and 3.6. While Bitcoin’s current MVRV of 2 does not yet approach this peak range, the upward trend in the MVRV indicates that the market may still have room for growth if historical patterns hold.

Should the Realized Value (RV) remain constant, CoinLupin’s analysis projects that Bitcoin would need a price increase of around 43% to 77% to reach an MVRV level between 3 and 3.6.

This translates to a potential price target range of $95,000 to $120,000, provided market conditions support upward momentum. However, the analyst also noted that the Realized Value could increase as new buying interest emerges, potentially pushing peak valuations beyond these estimated levels.

Bitcoin Market Performance

After several weeks and days of building momentum to surge past the $70,000 resistance, Bitcoin has again fallen below this price mark, indicating that there might not be enough momentum yet to move further to the upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com — BTC price is moving upwards on the 1-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

So far, the asset has declined by nearly 1% in the past week. However, BTC currently trades for $68,306, recording a slight increase in price by 1% as its 24-hour high remains at $69,317.

Interestingly, despite the slight dip in price in the past weeks, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has registered an increase over this period.

Particularly, data from CoinGecko shows that BTC’s 24-hour trading volume has increased from below $30 billion last Monday to currently above $38 billion as of today.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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