Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Bullish But It’s Time For Caution

Samuel Edyme

4 months ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price has regained upward traction, trading back above $105,000 after a temporary dip below $104,000 earlier today. This 1.2% increase over the past hour reflects renewed optimism in the market.

Amid this price performance, Crypto Dan, a CryptoQuant analyst has shared his analysis of on-chain data and market behaviors that may shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks and months ahead.

Bitcoin Bullish Market But Caution

According to Dan, the amount of Bitcoin held for less than six months continues to show notable growth with each market cycle. This trend suggests that as Bitcoin’s appeal widens, new capital inflows—particularly from the expected introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs—could further drive demand.

Dan anticipates that both institutional and retail investors will ramp up their involvement as these ETFs gain traction by the first half of 2025.

Additionally, while current indicators remain bullish, Crypto Dan warns that surging interest in Bitcoin and altcoins, paired with an influx of new investors, could signal that the current cycle may be nearing its peak.

If Bitcoin pushes through its all-time high with significant momentum, and altcoins follow suit, it could trigger a wave of inflows that may mark the cycle’s final stages. Dan advises investors to start considering risk management strategies.

The Crypto Market Remains Bullish… But It’s Time for Caution

“If Bitcoin breaks through its all-time high with strong momentum and altcoins follow suit, triggering a wave of new investor inflows, it may indicate that the end of the cycle is approaching.” – By @DanCoinInvestor… pic.twitter.com/NvKB8Ly1DE

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 31, 2025

Diverging Inflows from Retail and Whales

This cautionary note is reinforced by observations from another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, who highlights a discrepancy in the behavior of retail investors and whales.

According to recent Binance data, retail investors have significantly increased their BTC deposits over the past month, with inflows reaching approximately 6,000 BTC. In contrast, whale activity on Binance has dwindled, with their BTC inflows dropping to around 1,000 BTC—a fourfold decrease.

Darkfost notes that retail investors often use exchanges to liquidate their holdings, whereas whales’ reduced inflows suggest they are holding onto their Bitcoin.

This contrasting behavior offers insights into broader market sentiment: retail participants appear eager to capitalize on short-term gains, while larger, more established investors maintain a more cautious stance.

Historically, following whale behavior rather than retail trends has provided a more reliable signal for long-term market moves. Darkfost highlighted this noting:

This is a perfect example of the contrasting behaviors between whales and retail traders and it is often considered a better choice to follow whales rather than retail investors

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView — BTC price is moving sideways on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured Image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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