Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Dormant 1,433 BTC Moves After 10+ Years

Keshav Verma

2 years ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data shows a large amount of Bitcoin older than 10 years has suddenly moved today, a sign that could be bearish for the price.

Bitcoin Dormant From More Than 10 Years Ago Has Abruptly Moved

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, this movement of dormant coins may be a sign of selling. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Age Bands” (SOAB), which tracks the movements that the different age bands are making on the blockchain right now.

The “age bands” here refer to groups of coins divided based on the total amount of time that they have been sitting still on the network for. In the context of the current discussion, the 10+ years age band is of interest, which is a cohort that includes all coins that haven’t moved from a single address in more than 10 years.

The SOAB metric, when applied for this particular age band, would naturally tell us about the number of coins that investors belonging to this group are transferring at the moment.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOAB for the 10+ years age band over the past couple of days:

The value of the metric seems to have been quite high in recent hours | Source: CryptoQuant

As shown in the above graph, the Bitcoin SOAB for this specific group has registered a large spike during the past day. In total, this surge in the metric has corresponded to around 1,433 BTC moving across wallets on the network.

The general cohort for all investors that have been holding their coins since more than 155 days ago is called the “long-term holder (LTH) group.” Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell at any point. Due to this reason, the LTHs are considered the resolute hands of the market.

As the movement in question is coming from an investor who had been holding for more than 10+ years, the holder would have been one of the oldest ones among even these LTHs.

Such old supply, however, is usually considered to have been lost due to wallet seed phrases becoming inaccessible. This means that there is a big chance that the wallet activation today may have come because of a user rediscovering a previously lost wallet.

While movements from the LTHs are usually a bad sign for the market, as they show that even the diamond hands may have lost their belief in Bitcoin, this latest transaction wouldn’t be reflective of the general sentiment, considering the special circumstances around it if it’s truly coming from a lost address that has now been recovered.

Nonetheless, the transfer is still a probable sign that the coins are being moved around for selling-related purposes, so it’s possible that the asset may face some bearish impact from the move.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,400, down 2% in the last week.

Looks like BTC has been consolidating sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Hans-Jurgen Mager on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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