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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Bears Ran Out Of Coins? What This Analyst Forecast For BTC At Around $30,000

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT

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Despite today’s macroeconomic developments, the price of Bitcoin continues to move sideways and seems likely to stay on this path. The number one crypto by market cap has seen its volatility drop to fresh lows as its price is trapped at current levels.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $26,600 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. Over the past seven days, the cryptocurrency has recorded some profits but has been unable to break above or below the $28,000 to $30,500 range.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT
BTC’s price is moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview

A New Normal For Bitcoin? Volatility Likely To Decline Until This Changes

Analyst Dylan LeClair pointed out that operators in the derivatives sector have dominated the current Bitcoin price action. In that sense, the BTC spot-to-derivative trading volume ratio followed volatility and declined to all-time lows.

As seen in the chart below, this ratio shows that the spot market has been suppressed by the derivatives sector, with traders “chopping each other to oblivion.” LeClair stated the following:

(…) spot bears have mostly run out of coins & spot bulls are either fully deployed or are sidelined TradFi waiting for ETF approval.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2
BTC’s spot-to-derivatives ratio (as measured by trading volume). Source: CryptoQuant via Dylan LeClair on X

With the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) out of session until September and low uncertainty in the short term, the price of Bitcoin seems poised to keep chopping around its current levels.

In this environment, derivatives traders will likely profit from selling volatility via different financial instruments. Data from the derivatives platform Deribit shows an uptick in call (buy) contracts on the options sectors for October to December expiry.

A report posted by this platform from Rogue Trader Academy highlights the need for a catalyst to push BTC out of its current range. The market is positioning itself for a Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval in Q4, 2023, thus why players on the options markets are accumulating calls.

Selling volatility has been a profitable strategy in July. Still, as the metric hovers around historical lows, traders become more resilient to dump their contracts on the derivatives sector, further suppressing BTC’s price. Rogue Trader Academy stated:

(…) those selling volatility (gamma sellers) are growing hesitant to offload at such historically low implied vol levels, especially with significant economic data like the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the horizon for this week.

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PEPE Coin Makes Minor Gains With 3.5% Spike – Sign Of Recovery?

1 year ago

In this low volatility, low liquidity environment, only a catalyst will push BTC beyond $30,000 and beyond $40,000 by the end of the year. Something seems apparent in this context: Bitcoin seems ahead of any bullish narrative and likely to outperform in the sector for the remainder of 2023.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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NewsBTC is a cryptocurrency news service that covers bitcoin news today, technical analysis & forecasts for bitcoin price and other altcoins. Here at NewsBTC, we are dedicated to enlightening everyone about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

We cover BTC news related to bitcoin exchanges, bitcoin mining and price forecasts for various cryptocurrencies.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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