Bitcoin Bull Cycle Likely To Go On Till Mid-2025: CryptoQuant CEO

Keshav Verma

11 months ago

2 mins read

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The CEO and founder of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how this Bitcoin bull cycle could probably last till mid-2025.

Profit-Taking From Old Bitcoin Whales Lasted For 18 Months In Previous Cycles

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about a pattern that old whales have followed in terms of profit-taking during the past cycles.

“Old whales take profits during bull markets,” notes Young Ju. “Their selling brings new capital into accumulation addresses, raising realized prices.” Accumulation Addresses refer to the Bitcoin wallets that have no history of selling.

These addresses also have a few other conditions, such as they must have at least two deposits and shouldn’t be connected to miners or centralized exchanges. They should also carry a balance of at least 10 BTC, and their last transaction should have been within the past seven years.

The Accumulation Addresses basically reflect the perennial HODLers of the market, who only buy more and never sell. During bull markets, as old whales break their silence to harvest their profits, demand from these HODLers absorbs the selling.

To display this trend, the CryptoQuant CEO has made use of the “Realized Price” metric, which keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor belonging to this cohort.

When the value of this indicator is above the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the cohort as a whole is in a state of unrealized loss right now. On the other hand, it being under BTC’s value implies these diamond hands are currently carrying profits.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for the Bitcoin Accumulation Addresses over the past decade:

Bitcoin Accumulation Address Realized Price — Looks like the value of the metric has been heading up recently | Source: @ki_young_ju on X

As shown in the above graph, the Realized Price for this cohort observed a rise during the last two Bitcoin bull runs. This would suggest that these HODLers were buying as prices were going up, thus raising their average cost basis.

This accumulation likely corresponded to profit-taking from other entities in the market. As Young Ju has pointed out, this profit-taking spree lasted for about 18 months in these past cycles.

From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has once again started showing an uptrend with the price rally this year. This would suggest that the Accumulation Addresses are back to absorbing profit-taking from old whales.

So far, this rise has lasted for around four months, which means that there could still be around another fourteen months of it left, if the last two cycles are anything to go by. Based on this, the analyst thinks this latest Bitcoin bull cycle could end up running into mid-2025.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has edged close to the $70,000 level during the past day after observing a surge of around 3%.

Bitcoin Price Chart — The price of the coin appears to have been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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