Bitcoin Could See A 50% Rise Based On This, Analyst Explains

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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An analyst has explained that a pattern in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could suggest a potential 50% rise for BTC may be ahead.

Bitcoin & GBTC Have Seen A Decoupling In Recent Months

In a new post on X, analyst James V. Straten has discussed the correlation between GBTC and BTC that has been present over the years. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin and allows exposure to these holdings through its shares.

The chart below shows the trend in the percentage performance of Bitcoin and GBTC, as well as the correlation coefficient between them, over the past year.

Looks like the two assets have diverged recently | Source: @jimmyvs24 on X

The “correlation coefficient” here refers to a metric that tells us how tied the prices of any two assets are. When this metric has a positive value, the given commodities show positive correlations as they replicate each other’s moves. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger this relationship is.

On the other hand, negative values imply the assets are responding to each other’s moves by moving in the opposite direction. The strongest negative correlation occurs at a value of -1.

Naturally, when the correlation coefficient is around zero, there isn’t any correlation between the commodities, as their prices move independently.

From the above graph, it’s apparent that Bitcoin and GBTC have often had a correlation coefficient close to 1, implying that there has been a robust positive correlation between the two.

There have been some temporary periods of deviation, mainly during drawdowns in the cryptocurrency’s price and other significant events like the SVB collapse. The correlation reverted to the norm soon after these, however.

Straten says this correlation is especially striking in a 5-year timeframe, where it becomes 100%. The analyst also notes, however, that the two assets have decoupled since June.

As is visible in the chart, GBTC has enjoyed some sharp uptrend recently, while BTC has been mostly flat. GBTC’s performance currently stands at +81% during the past year, while Bitcoin is up about 43%.

“GBTC will be the first to be approved for the spot ETF before Blackrock and others,” says Straten, referring to what British HODL, another analyst, said earlier. “Price action agrees with this. Irrespective of whether it’s late Q3 or early Q4, it’s a six-month window from now.”

Based on this, the analyst believes that either Bitcoin will have to close up the gap created between it and GBTC since June, which would mean a price jump of around 50%, or GBTC would have to come down towards BTC. Straten believes the latter scenario to be unlikely, however.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has declined over the past few days as its price has dropped to just $27,100.

BTC has been going down during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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