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Breaking News: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans
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Breaking News: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans

Bitcoin Could Crash To $60,000 If This Support Gets Lost: CryptoQuant Head

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows Bitcoin is approaching the “Realized Price” of the short-term holders, a retest of which has historically been important for BTC.

Bitcoin Is Close To Seeing A Retest Of Short-Term Holder Cost Basis

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed how BTC has recently been near the Realized Price of the short-term holders.

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The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average price at which investors or addresses on the Bitcoin network acquired their coins.

When the cryptocurrency’s spot price is higher than this metric, it means that the average holder in the market is currently sitting on some profits. On the other hand, BTC’s value under the indicator suggests the dominance of losses among the investors.

Naturally, when the two are exactly equal, the market as a whole can be assumed to be holding an equal amount of unrealized profits and losses. The holders could collectively be considered just breaking even on their investment.

In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific part of the sector is of focus: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs are the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days.

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the Bitcoin STHs over the past couple of years:

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price
The value of the indicator seems to have been near the neutral mark recently | Source: @jjcmoreno on X

The above graph shows that the Bitcoin price is close to the Realized Price of the STHs. This means that the margin is small, although these investors are sitting in profits right now.

Thus, it’s possible that if the cryptocurrency continues on its latest bearish trajectory, a retest of the average cost basis of this cohort could be imminent. In the past, such retests have proven relevant for the asset.

Moreno has highlighted in the chart the interactions the asset’s spot value has shown with this level during the last two years. It would appear that during two of these retests (marked with green circles), the coin found support at this level and rebounded upwards to continue the bullish momentum.

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However, in the three other instances (red circles), Bitcoin failed to retest the level and observed a decline. These corrections were from 8% to 12%, and the latest occurrence of the trend was at the end of April/start of May.

With another retest possibly approaching for the cryptocurrency, it would be interesting to see which of the two patterns would follow this time around. If a breakdown of the level happens, the analyst notes, “the price could decline to about $60K.”

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $65,400, down over 6% in the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Looks like the price of the coin has been going through a drawdown in recent days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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