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Breaking News: XRP Projected To Reach $8 By 2026: Standard Chartered Identifies Two Major Catalysts
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Breaking News: XRP Projected To Reach $8 By 2026: Standard Chartered Identifies Two Major Catalysts

Bitcoin Cycle Defined by Demand, Not Price: CryptoQuant Head Says

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: January 2, 2026 12:00 am
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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Head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how demand makes the basis of a Bitcoin cycle, rather than price performance.

Bitcoin Apparent Demand Has Been Declining Recently

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about Bitcoin cycles from a different lens. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to,” noted Moreno.

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The analyst has gauged the “demand” for the cryptocurrency using the Apparent Demand indicator, which compares the daily miner issuance against the changes in the 1-year dormant supply.

The first of these, the miner issuance, is the amount that miners are “minting” on the network every day by receiving block rewards. This metric essentially reflects the “production” of the asset. The 1-year inactive supply, on the other hand, can be thought of as the cryptocurrency’s “inventory.”

Thus, the Apparent Demand basically compares the production of Bitcoin against changes taking place in its inventory. Below is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trends in the 30-day and 1-year versions of the Apparent Demand over the past decade.

Bitcoin Apparent Demand
The value of the metric seems to have turned negative on the monthly timeframe | Source: @jjcmoreno on X

As is visible in the graph, the last few Bitcoin cycles have all transitioned into a bear market when the Apparent Demand has plunged into the negative region on both the monthly and yearly timeframes.

In the current cycle, the 30-day Apparent Demand has plunged into the red zone recently, suggesting that the monthly demand for the asset has been negative.

On the annual scale, the metric is still at a positive level, but its value has been following a downtrend. If this decline keeps up, it won’t be long before the indicator has dipped into the negative territory.

Considering the pattern from the previous cycles, the current structure in the Apparent Demand is certainly looking bearish. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the yearly version of the metric will cross into the red zone or if it will rebound, signaling the return of demand.

Spot demand isn’t the only way to measure Bitcoin demand these days. With the advent of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), there has been some fresh off-chain demand coming into the cryptocurrency this cycle.

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Bitcoin Coinbase Premium At Rare Discount As US Demand Weakens

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As on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about in an X post, the 30-day netflow related to the US BTC spot ETFs has remained in the negative zone recently, indicating demand has been muted in this side of the market as well.

Bitcoin ETFs
The value of the metric appears to have been red in recent weeks | Source: Glassnode on X

BTC Price

Bitcoin has taken to consolidation recently as its price is still floating around the $88,000 level.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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