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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning

Bitcoin Not Out Of Danger Yet, NVT Golden Cross Warns

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross still has a high value, a sign that may be bearish for BTC.

Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Still Near Historical Top Zone

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the recent trend in the NVT Golden Cross for BTC and its implications for the price.

The NVT ratio is an indicator that tells us about how the Bitcoin market cap compares against its transaction volume. The metric is generally used to judge whether the asset’s price is fair or not right now.

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When the indicator’s value is high, it suggests the network’s value (that is, the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins (the volume). Such a trend implies that the asset may be overpriced currently.

On the other hand, the low metric means the cryptocurrency’s price may be undervalued due to a rebound as the market cap is low compared to the volume.

In the context of the current topic, the NVT ratio itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a modified form called the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend (the 10-day moving average) with the long-term trend (30-day MA) of the NVT ratio to identify tops and bottoms.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator over the past couple of years:

Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross
The value of the metric seems to have been relatively high in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant

In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two relevant zones for the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross. It would appear that when this metric is above 2.2, a top can be probable for the cryptocurrency as its price is overvalued in this zone. Similarly, the NVT Golden Cross being under -1.6 can lead to a bottom formation for the asset.

The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has ventured into the red territory for the last couple of months. Each time it has seen a decline out of the zone, it has followed up with another rise into the zone. As such, it hasn’t been able to visit the bullish region yet.

At present, the metric has just made another exit out of the top zone, but its value is still quite near it. Thus, while a top may not be especially probable now, a lasting uptrend is also unlikely to happen.

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It’s possible that Bitcoin won’t be completely out of danger of observing more price drawdowns until the NVT Golden Cross can see a decrease in the green zone.

It now remains to be seen how the indicator develops in the near future and whether its changes will affect the BTC price.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around the $64,900 mark, up more than 4% over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart
It looks like the price of the asset has enjoyed a surge over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Bastian Riccardi on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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