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Breaking News: XRP Projected To Reach $8 By 2026: Standard Chartered Identifies Two Major Catalysts
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Breaking News: XRP Projected To Reach $8 By 2026: Standard Chartered Identifies Two Major Catalysts

Bitcoin Equilibrium: Active Market Participants Just Breaking Even

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: December 30, 2025 2:00 am
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin price is currently floating around the cost basis of the Active Investors, suggesting this cohort is at break-even.

Bitcoin Is Trading At The Active Investors Mean

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared an update on where the major Bitcoin on-chain levels currently stand. There are four pricing models of interest here, the most basic of which is the Realized Price.

The Realized Price basically keeps track of the cost basis or acquisition level of the average investor on the BTC network. The spot price trading above this line means that the holders as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit, while the reverse situation suggests the dominance of loss in the market.

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Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in this metric over the last few years.

Bitcoin Realized Price
The price of the coin seems to have been trading around the Active Realized Price in recent weeks | Source: Glassnode on X

As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin spot price crossed above the Realized Price back at the start of 2023, and since then, its value has remained above the indicator.

At present, the Realized Price is sitting at $56,200, which means that the network as a whole is in a significant amount of profit at the current spot price.

While the Realized Price does provide an overall view of the blockchain, it doesn’t tend to be too useful outside of bear markets as the asset rarely interacts with it. This is a consequence of the fact that it accounts for all tokens in circulation, even the ones that have become inaccessible due to lost wallet keys.

Two other models in the chart, the True Market Mean and Active Realized Price, exist to solve this issue. These indicators only provide the cost basis of the active market participants. That is, the Bitcoin investors who have recently been involved in transaction activity.

The first model, the True Market Mean, is situated at $81,100 right now. This is around where the cryptocurrency found its bottom when it crashed in November. Meanwhile, the Active Realized Price corresponds to $87,700, which is the level about which BTC has recently been consolidating.

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As Bitcoin is currently trading right at the Active Realize Price, the investors holding the economically active supply can be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment.

While the active traders as a whole have a neutral profitability, the same isn’t true for a segment of them known as the short-term holders (STHs). Formally, the STHs are defined as the addresses who acquired their coins within the past 155 days.

With the Bitcoin STH Realized Price equal to $99,900 at the moment, this cohort is in a state of net loss.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,700, down 2.6% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Looks like the price of the coin has overall been moving sideways in recent days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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