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Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range after setting a new all-time high above $123,000 just 10 days ago. The current range, between $117,000 and $120,000, reflects a pause in momentum as the market digests recent gains and prepares for its next major move. While volatility has cooled, underlying metrics suggest that the broader trend may still have room to run.
One key indicator drawing attention is the percentage of supply active in the past 180 days (% Supply Active). This metric has historically surged during major macro turning points. In spring 2024, as BTC approached $70,000, % Supply Active climbed to 20%. It rose again to 18% in December 2024, when Bitcoin first broke through the psychological $100,000 barrier. These spikes reflected long-dormant coins moving out of storage—often interpreted as early signals of broader distribution phases beginning.
Currently, the market is showing only initial signs of renewed supply activity, suggesting that we may still be in the early stages of this cycle’s distribution phase. As long-term holders remain relatively inactive and Bitcoin trades near record levels, the stage may be set for further upside if accumulation resumes and new capital enters the market.
Supply Activity Signals Early Stage Of Bitcoin Macro Expansion
Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared key insights pointing to a potential early phase in Bitcoin’s ongoing macro cycle. According to Adler, supply activity began rising in June 2025 as BTC crossed the $100,000 mark. Over the past 30 days, this metric has climbed from negative territory to +2.4%, signaling the beginning of a shift in holder behavior. While the increase confirms early signs of distribution, it remains modest compared to previous cycle peaks.
Historically, major bull markets see this 30-day % Supply Active rise dramatically. Adler highlights that the current pace lags behind prior peaks—like those seen when BTC reached $70,000 in spring 2024 or when it breached $100,000 in December 2024—suggesting that the market still has a considerable buffer before entering a heightened distribution phase. This delayed spike in activity implies that most long-term holders remain committed and are not yet ready to offload their coins.
As Bitcoin consolidates near the $120,000 level, this growing yet restrained activity indicates a healthy cycle structure. Adler predicts that if BTC continues to climb and hold above $120,000, the 30-day % Supply Active will likely move into the 8–10% range. Ultimately, it could revisit the 18–20% zone seen at past distribution tops.
BTC Holds Strong Above $115K Amid Consolidation
The 12-hour Bitcoin chart reveals a clear consolidation phase following the recent all-time high. BTC is currently trading around $118,267, trapped in a tight range between the $122,077 resistance and the $115,724 support. Despite a minor rejection from the $120K area, the structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the 50 and 100-period SMAs, which are now aligned between $113K and $110K—signaling solid mid-term support.
Volume shows decreasing momentum during this consolidation, typical of a healthy pause after a strong breakout. BTC previously surged above $120K on strong volume, but has since failed to establish a new high, instead forming a sideways pattern. This suggests market indecision or accumulation before the next leg.
A break above $122,000 could trigger the next push toward the $130K level, while a breakdown below $115,724 would open room for a deeper retrace, potentially toward the $113,000 area near the 50-SMA. As long as buyers defend the lower range, the trend remains intact, and a breakout seems likely—especially if macro indicators or on-chain signals support further upside.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
