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Breaking News: Altcoin Struggles: What The Future Holds And The Potential For A 2026 Revival

Bitcoin Inflow Slowdown: CryptoQuant Founder Says Sentiment Could Take Months To Recover

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: December 23, 2025 2:00 am
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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The founder and CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has revealed how Bitcoin on-chain capital inflows have stalled over the last couple of months.

Bitcoin Realized Cap Has Witnessed A Slowdown Recently

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about how on-chain capital inflows have been weakening for Bitcoin recently. “After about 2.5 years of growth, realized cap has stalled over the past month,” noted Young Ju. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an on-chain capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each coin in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

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Since the last transaction of any coin is likely to represent the last instance of it changing hands, the price at that time can be considered as its current cost basis. Therefore, the Realized Cap is just a sum of the cost basis of the entire BTC supply. In other words, it tracks the capital that the investors used to purchase their tokens.

Realized Cap had been enjoying growth for the last couple of years, but as the CryptoQuant founder has revealed, capital inflows have dropped off. This suggests a decline in sentiment around Bitcoin.

The turnaround in sentiment is also visible through the analytics firm’s PnL Index, which incorporates key on-chain indicators to build a single valuation metric for BTC.

The indicators in question are the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and STH/LTH SOPR. The first two both deal with the amount of unrealized profit or loss held by the investors as a whole, while the latter provides a look into investor profit-taking.

Below is the chart shared by Young Ju that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin PnL Index over the history of the asset.

Bitcoin PnL Index
The value of the metric seems to have been declining in recent days | Source: @ki_young_ju on X

From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin PnL Index saw its 365-day MA reach a high earlier in the year, implying that the coin had potentially become overvalued.

Since then, the metric has seen a reversal to the downside. Currently, its value is still notably positive, so the cryptocurrency may be considered to be in a bullish phase, but historically, drawdowns have tended to lead into bear markets.

Though there were a couple of instances where this pattern didn’t hold. One being the aftermath of the COVID crash and the other the decline that occurred in the early months of 2025.

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So far, the indicator hasn’t shown signs of any turnaround back to the upside, although it should be noted that it’s an average over the past year, so there is some delay attached.

Based on the on-chain trend, Young Ju has said, “Sentiment recovery might take a few months.”

BTC Price

Bitcoin has made recovery from last week’s plunge as its price is now back at $89,800.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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