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Breaking News: Bitcoin Outlook Post Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut: Historical Patterns And Predictions
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Outlook Post Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut: Historical Patterns And Predictions

Bitcoin Lacks Fresh Momentum As Realized Cap Growth Still Declining

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: December 11, 2025 6:00 am
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth indicator has continued to decline recently, a sign new capital inflows lack momentum.

Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth Has Been Heading Down Recently

As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has been trending lower recently. The “Realized Cap” is an on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each individual token is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

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This is unlike the usual market cap, which simply calculates the total valuation of the asset by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation with the current spot price, considering the latest value of the cryptocurrency to be the one value for all coins.

In short, what the Realized Cap represents is the amount of capital that the Bitcoin investors as a whole used to purchase the asset’s supply. On the other hand, the market cap is the value that the investors are carrying in the present.

The Realized Cap itself isn’t the indicator of interest in the current discussion, but rather the Realized Cap Growth, measuring the 365-day changes occurring in the Realized Cap.

Changes in the indicator naturally reflect the amount of capital exiting or entering the cryptocurrency. In other words, the Realized Cap Growth contains information about the asset’s netflow.

Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-day and 59-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth over the last few years:

Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth
The indicator appears to be flagging a bear phase at the moment | Source: @JA_Maartun on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has witnessed both its 7-day and 59-day MAs reverse down recently, with the former line crossing under the latter.

The trend indicates that growth in the Realized Cap has been slowing down during the recent market downturn. “This suggests Bitcoin is lacking momentum from new cost basis inflows,” noted the analyst.

With the 7-day MA falling below the 59-day MA, the indicator is now flagging the current market to be in a “bear phase.” The last time this signal maintained for an extended duration was alongside BTC’s decline over the first few months of 2025. It now remains to be seen how long momentum from new capital inflows will stay weak for Bitcoin this time around.

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In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders are still under a notable amount of stress, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has pointed out in an X post.

Bitcoin STH Profit/Loss Margin
How the profit/loss margin of the BTC STHs has changed over the last year | Source: @IT_Tech_PL on X

Short-term holders (STHs) are defined as the Bitcoin buyers who got into the market during the past 155 days. Despite the rebound BTC has seen since its November low, STHs are still in a loss of 10%.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,400, down 1.5% over the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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