Bitcoin’s Market at a Crossroads: Are Long-Term Holders Signalling a Correction or a Rally?

Samuel Edyme

6 months ago

3 mins read

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The role of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) has again come under the microscope of analysts as the asset currently faces a 4.5% correction from its all-time high (ATH) above $100,000 created on Thursday.

These holders, defined as those who retain their Bitcoin for over 155 days, are known to influence market movements through their accumulation and distribution behaviors significantly.

A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Datascope has highlighted key trends in LTH activity that could signal the next phase for Bitcoin.

Key Trends And Historical Context

Datascope’s insights highlight the importance of the LTH accumulation/distribution ratio as an on-chain metric. This ratio reflects whether LTHs are amassing Bitcoin, indicative of market bottoms, or liquidating holdings during price peaks, often signaling corrections.

Historical patterns from 2013 and 2017 saw LTHs engaging in substantial selling at market highs, while periods like 2019 and 2020 were marked by intense accumulation, paving the way for bull markets.

According to datascope’s analysis, the peaks of 2013 and 2017, which were characterized by heightened selling activity from LTHs, correlated with significant price corrections.

Bitcoin long term holder accumulation/distribution ratio metric. — BTC Long term holder accumulation/distribution ratio metric. | Source: CryptoQuant

These corrections, fueled by profit-taking, marked the culmination of bullish cycles. Conversely, during the lows of 2019 and 2020, LTHs exhibited strong accumulation tendencies, which signalled confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and laying the groundwork for subsequent price surges.

Now in 2024, datascope pointed out that the LTH metric is once again providing critical insights into market conditions. Recent data reveals increased selling activity among LTHs, a behaviour observed during periods of market overheating or resistance at current price levels.

While this trend could hint at an impending correction, it also raises the possibility of the market transitioning into a new accumulation phase. Echoing this, a recent report from CryptoQuant reveals there has been sustained buying pressure from US investors.

Bitcoin passes $100k as institutional demand drives the market.

The Coinbase Premium Index highlights sustained buying pressure from U.S. investors. pic.twitter.com/eZvKFCmVxs

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 5, 2024

Current Outlook On Bitcoin

Bitcoin has continued to see decline in its price following the $103,679 ATH recorded yesterday. At the time of writing, BTC has dropped 2.2% in the past 24 hours with a current trading price of $99,208.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView — BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Regardless of this, the asset appears to still be in an uptrend. over the past month, Bitcoin is still up by roughly 33.6% with a current market capitalisation of $1.965 trillion.

datascope commenting on Bitcoin’s current market outlook wrote:

The market is at a crossroads, potentially entering a new upward cycle or consolidating before a deeper correction. With Bitcoin in an “overheated” zone, investors should exercise caution and evaluate profit-taking opportunities.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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