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In a report published on December 17, analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated that a combination of rising institutional adoption of Bitcoin (BTC) and bullish technical indicators could push the leading cryptocurrency as high as $200,000 by mid-2025. The report also predicts that any price corrections during 2025 are likely to ‘remain mild.’
Bitcoin Pullbacks To Be Mild In 2025
Earlier this month, Bitcoin crossed the psychologically significant $100,000 price level, pushing its total market capitalization to slightly above $2 trillion at the time of writing. However, according to the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report, BTC still has significant potential for growth heading into 2025.
The report highlights several technical indicators, including market value to realized value (MVRV), net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and the bull-bear market cycle indicator, which collectively suggest that the market still reflects bullish momentum and is far from hitting euphoric peaks.
According to Bitfinex analysts, while diminishing returns might temper Bitcoin’s extraordinary growth seen in previous cycles, the cryptocurrency could still reach $200,000 under ‘favorable conditions.’ The report states:
Our view is that any corrections in 2025 will remain mild, thanks to institutional inflows. Historically, post-halving years have seen the strongest rallies. Minimum price estimates stand at $145,000 by mid-2025, potentially stretching to $200,000 under favourable conditions.
Indeed, institutional inflows into Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shown a steady upward trajectory, especially after Donald Trump’s win in the November presidential election. A recent analysis revealed that US spot ETFs now hold more BTC than the wallet of Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
While the report projects a strong long-term bullish case, it cautions that some price volatility may emerge during Q1 2025. These pullbacks, however, are expected to be mild and short-lived. The report also notes that price corrections following Bitcoin halvings have been shrinking in size with each cycle:
In previous cycles, once Bitcoin entered price discovery following a halving, corrections before mean reversion to new ATHs were relatively contained. In the 2017 cycle, the maximum correction was 33.2 percent, while the 2020 cycle saw a slightly smaller correction of 27.1 percent.
Strategic Reserve May Extend BTC Gains
One unique factor in this Bitcoin cycle is the speculation surrounding the potential establishment of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve. Such a reserve could drive Bitcoin prices into the seven-figure range, according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at asset management firm Bitwise, recently noted that creating a strategic BTC reserve could propel the asset’s price to $500,000. Experts believe that if the US establishes a BTC reserve, other nations are likely to follow suit, creating a domino effect that could lead to a significant price surge.
In related news, Japanese Member of Parliament Satoshi Hamada floated the idea of Japan creating its own strategic BTC reserve. At press time, BTC trades at $103,953, down 3.7% in the past 24 hours.
