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Breaking News: Bitcoin Tops $73,000, Expert Explains Why The Rally Isn’t Over Yet
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Tops $73,000, Expert Explains Why The Rally Isn’t Over Yet

Bitcoin In The Middle Of A Decision Point, Analyst Says—Here’s Why

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: May 6, 2025 5:00 am
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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An on-chain analyst has explained how Bitcoin could be in the middle of a decision point based on its supply cost basis distribution.

Bitcoin Is Currently Retesting A Major Supply Cluster

In a new post on X, analyst Checkmate has talked about how Bitcoin is looking based on its UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). The URPD is an on-chain indicator that tells us about what part of the BTC supply was last purchased at the different price levels that the cryptocurrency has visited in its history.

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Below is the chart for the metric that the analyst shared in the post.

Bitcoin URPD
Looks like BTC is trading around dense supply zones | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X

As is visible in the graph, a notable part of the Bitcoin supply was purchased around the price range that BTC has been trading inside recently. In particular, there seem to be two massive supply clusters at these levels.

When Checkmate shared the chart yesterday, the cryptocurrency’s price was trading right between the two supply walls. That is, investors who bought in the lower of the walls were in the green and those who did at the upper one were underwater.

The analyst called the asset’s location as being “right in the middle of a decision point.” This is because of the fact that any large move up or down from that point would have an effect on the profit-loss status of a large amount of addresses.

In on-chain analysis, large supply walls under the spot BTC price are assumed to be locations of probable support, as the investors who bought there might defend their break-even mark during a retest.

Similarly, the levels above can act as resistance, as those holders might take the opportunity to sell the cryptocurrency and get out with the whole of their investment back.

Since the post, Bitcoin has seen a small pullback, so the asset is now leaning toward the green supply zone. It’s possible that this area would help keep BTC from falling under, given the large amount of supply that was purchased inside it.

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Naturally, where it goes next could end up having a major effect on the market sentiment. As Checkmate puts it, “all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively.”

Bitcoin is currently also near a macro on-chain support level: the short-term holder Realized Price. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has explained in an X post, this level is situated at $93,364.

Bitcoin STH Realized Price
BTC seems to be trading above the line right now | Source: @JA_Maartun

The short-term holder Realized Price refers to the average cost basis of the Bitcoin holders who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This level has historically served as a boundary between bullish and bearish trends for BTC.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $94,000, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin has been sliding down over the last few days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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