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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Miners Always Sell Into Halvings, Is This Time Any Different?

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin Mining

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On-chain data shows Bitcoin miners have always sold as Halvings have occurred. With the next one just around the corner, how are miners behaving this time?

Next Bitcoin Halving Is Less Than Two Days Away Now

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed Bitcoin miners’ behavior in the build-up to the next Halving.

The “Halving” is a periodic event on the Bitcoin network where the cryptocurrency’s block rewards (the compensation miners receive for solving blocks) are permanently slashed in half.

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This event occurs approximately every four years, and according to NiceHash’s countdown, the next one will occur in just over 32 hours.

Bitcoin Halving

The countdown to the next halving event | Source: NiceHash

Bitcoin miners earn revenue from two sources: transaction fees and block rewards. Historically, the former has been quite low on the BTC network, so the miners primarily depend on the latter to pay off their running costs.

Since the block rewards are cut in half during Halvings, these events naturally deal a significant blow to the miner’s revenues. As such, it’s not surprising that the miners have generally shown a reaction to the event in the past cycles.

“One of the common dynamics that occur in every cycle of cutting the issuance of new BTC is the significant selling pressure exerted by miners,” says the quant. One way to gauge the degree of selling pressure coming from these chain validators is via the Miner to Exchange Flow metric.

This indicator tracks the total amount of Bitcoin moving from miner-associated addresses to wallets connected to centralized exchanges. As miners usually deposit Bitcoin to these platforms for selling, this flow can provide hints about their selling behavior.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) BTC Miner to Exchange Flow over the last few years:

Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow

Looks like the 30-day MA value of the metric has observed a steep plunge in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day MA Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow had surged to high levels in the 2020 Halving event, implying that this group had potentially been participating in a selloff.

This selling push may have come from the miners planning to exit, given the sharp revenue reduction that was set to occur. The graph, though, clearly shows that no such selling pressure has emerged this time around despite the event being just around the corner.

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So, what’s going on here? The analyst suggests that the Bitcoin miners may have already completed the latest round of selling in advance (as the exchange inflows from the cohort did spike in February). If this is true, the quant thinks this could benefit the market in the short term.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued to move sideways inside a range recently, as its price is still trading around $63,500.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The price of the coin appears to have rebounded a bit from its latest drop | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from NisonCo PR and SEO on Unplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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