Bitcoin Miners Selling Again, Will Price Crash Again?

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data shows that Bitcoin miners may have once again been participating in selling recently, something that could lead to the asset declining.

Bitcoin Miner Reserve Has Been Declining In The Last Two Weeks

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC miner reserve has been observing outflows recently. The “miner reserve” here refers to the total amount of Bitcoin that the miners as a whole are holding in their wallets right now.

When the value of this metric goes up, it means that these chain validators are transferring coins into their addresses currently. This kind of trend can be a sign that the miners are accumulating, and hence, can be bullish for the price of the asset.

On the other hand, the indicator trending down suggests the miners are taking BTC out of their wallets at the moment. Generally, these investors withdraw coins from their reserve for selling-related purposes, so such a trend can have bearish consequences for the cryptocurrency’s value.

In the context of the current discussion, the miner reserve itself isn’t of interest, but rather its “rate of change” (ROC) is. This metric keeps track of the percentage changes in the miner reserve over a specific period. Here, the relevant period is the 14-day one.

Now, below is a chart that shows the trend in the 14-day ROC of the Bitcoin miner reserves over the last few months:

Looks like the value of the metric seems to have been negative in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As shown in the above graph, the 14-day ROC of the miner reserve had been green last month as Bitcoin had rallied above the $30,000 level. These positive values of the indicator imply that the miner reserve had been rapidly going up.

The timing of these positive ROC values could suggest that the accumulation from the miners might have provided support for the surge in the cryptocurrency’s price.

In the first week of this month, though, the metric turned negative, implying that the miner reserve started to decline. The miners look to have continued to withdraw coins from their wallets since then, as the indicator’s value has remained red.

The Bitcoin price has been struggling in this period, as it hasn’t been able to mount up any significant moves. It would appear that this selling from the miners (if the withdrawals are indeed happening for selling) might be one of the factors behind the asset stalling in the past couple of weeks.

Since the 14-day ROC of the miner reserve has continued to be at notable red values recently, it’s possible that these chain validators aren’t letting up their selling just yet.

So far, the price has continued to hold on above the $30,000 level, implying that there may be enough demand in the market to absorb any selling from the miners for now. However, if the miners continue to sell into the near future, it’s possible the asset may buckle and the price could face a drawdown.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $30,000, down 1% in the last week.

BTC has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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