Bitcoin Pullback or Setup? On-Chain Metrics Hint at What’s Coming Next

Samuel Edyme

3 months ago

2 mins read

Bitcoin Pullback or Setup? On-Chain Metrics Hint at What’s Coming Next

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Bitcoin is experiencing a short-term price decline. In the past 24 hours, the asset has fallen by approximately 9.3% to a trading value of $105,062. This pullback places Bitcoin roughly 8% below its all-time high recorded last month.

The dip comes amid broader market volatility, but on-chain indicators and exchange data suggest deeper structural trends that may influence the next phase of Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Recent market analysis points to renewed accumulation among long-term holders, a spike in exchange withdrawals, and rising spot trading activity on Binance.

These developments are being interpreted as signals of underlying strength despite recent price weakness. CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha has provided a detailed breakdown of these emerging patterns, offering a perspective on how long-term dynamics may be shaping Bitcoin’s current market behavior.

Binance Trading Volume Rises, Long-Term Holders Accumulate

Since early June, Binance has seen its share of Bitcoin spot trading volume increase from 26% to 35%, positioning it more firmly as the dominant platform in the market. This increase in trading activity has occurred as Bitcoin approaches and tests key price levels.

According to Taha, this surge may indicate renewed interest from retail and institutional traders alike, particularly as volatility draws more short-term market participants to major exchanges.

Bitcoin holders position realized cap. | Source: CryptoQuant

In addition to exchange volume shifts, on-chain data reveals growing confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders. The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Realized Cap, a metric that reflects the value of coins held by entities with a holding period of over 155 days, has returned above $20 billion.

Historically, this type of accumulation pattern has preceded periods of price expansion, as long-term investors tend to hold through corrections and avoid frequent selling.

The rise in LTH realized cap suggests these entities are not exiting positions during this market dip, which may reduce available supply and support future upward movement.

Bitcoin Large Exchange Withdrawals Signal Tightening Supply

Beyond trading activity and holder behavior, Taha pointed out that another notable trend is emerging on centralized exchanges. Over a two-day period, Kraken and Bitfinex recorded net Bitcoin outflows exceeding 20,000 BTC, among the largest short-term withdrawals in recent months.

Bitcoin netflow on major exchanges. | Source: CryptoQuant

Such movements are often interpreted as signals of investors shifting assets into self-custody, possibly in anticipation of long-term holding or strategic redeployment.

Combined, the rise in Binance’s market share, increased LTH accumulation, and exchange outflows present a picture of a market undergoing structural positioning rather than widespread exit activity.

While the short-term price trend reflects a pullback from recent highs, the simultaneous withdrawal of supply and steady long-term holder confidence could act as foundational elements for potential future growth.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView — BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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