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Breaking News: Trump Prepares To Allow Crypto Investments In $9 Trillion Retirement Market

Bitcoin Realized Price Flips 200-WMA: What Happens Next?

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
8 hours ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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The Bitcoin Realized Price has surged above the asset’s 200-week moving average (MA). Here’s what could happen next, according to history.

Bitcoin Realized Price Has Overtaken 200-WMA For First Time This Cycle

As pointed out by analyst James Van Straten in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Price and 200-week MA have seen a crossover. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network.

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When the value of this metric is higher than the spot price, it means the holders as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under BTC’s value suggests the average investor is underwater.

The 200-week MA, the other metric shared by the analyst, is a technical analysis (TA) pricing model that averages BTC’s closing price over the last 200 weeks. Since 200 weeks roughly equal four years, this indicator is used to gauge BTC’s trend shifts over a classic four-year cycle.

Now, here is the chart shared by Van Straten that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price and 200-week MA over the past decade:

Bitcoin Realized Price & 200-week MA
The two metrics appear to have seen a crossover in recent weeks | Source: @btcjvs on X

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price has gone up over the past year, a natural result of BTC’s spot price following an uptrend. As investors trade at the higher prices, they reprice the cost basis of their coins higher as well, thus raising the market average.

After the latest increase in the indicator, its value has surged above the 200-week MA. The last time that the former was higher than the latter was in the previous cycle.

Back then, the crossover occurred in 2020, and the orientation was maintained until 2022. Interestingly, the timing of the crossover coincided with the start of that cycle’s bull run. In the 2017 cycle, no crossover preceded the bull run as the Realized Price never dipped under the 200-week MA, but a retest did occur, which sent the metric flying up alongside the spot price.

“When the uptrend begins, so does the bull market,” notes the analyst. It now remains to be seen whether something similar as in the past would occur, with the Bitcoin Realized Price seeing a sustained surge above the 200-week MA.

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Speaking of bullish signals, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has revealed that institutional buying represented 75% of Coinbase volume recently.

Bitcoin Coinbase Volume
The trend in the institutional volume on Coinbase | Source: @caprioleio on X

Edwards has noticed an interesting pattern related to this metric. “All readings above 75% have seen higher prices one week later,” explains the analyst.

BTC Price

Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $124,000 on Wednesday, but the coin has plunged since then as its price is back at $118,300.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the BTC price over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, charts from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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