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Breaking News: Bitcoin Outlook Post Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut: Historical Patterns And Predictions
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Outlook Post Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut: Historical Patterns And Predictions

Bitcoin Signal That Led To At Least 70% Surge Has Formed Again

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: October 22, 2024 10:30 am
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain data shows a Bitcoin signal that has led to at least a 70% rally the last four times has recently formed for the asset once again.

Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Has Seen A Bullish Crossover Recently

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed the recent trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap.

The realized cap here refers to an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the asset by assuming that the true value of any token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain and not the current spot price.

This last transaction price of any coin is likely to be its latest cost basis, so the realized cap is essentially a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. Put another way, this model represents the capital the investors have put into the asset.

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In contrast, the market cap, which calculates the total valuation of the total BTC supply at the current spot price, signifies the value the investors hold right now.

When the value of the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, the investors hold more value than they put in, so they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the metric under this threshold suggests the market as a whole is carrying a loss.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio and its 180-day moving average (MA) over the last few years:

Bitcoin MVRV Momentum
The value of the metric appears to have crossed over its 180-day MA recently | Source: @ali_charts on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has seen a surge recently as the asset’s price has gone through its recovery run, implying investor profitability has improved.

With this increase, the indicator has now broken above its 180-day MA. Historically, a surge beyond this line has meant that the momentum of the metric has flipped to positive, which has proven to be a bullish predictor for the price.

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In the chart, the analyst highlighted the previous rallies that followed a momentum flip in the MVRV Ratio. BTC appeared to have seen surges of at least 70% on each of the last four occasions.

Going by this precedent, the latest change in the MVRV Ratio momentum to green may again lead to a surge for Bitcoin. It only remains to be seen, though, whether any such rally would be of a comparable scale to the previous ones or not.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500, up almost 3% over the last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin has seen a pullback over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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